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Sensex falls for 2nd day, down 257 points ahead of Fed outcome; VIX surges 5%

NEW DELHI: Benchmark indices slid for the second day on Wednesday ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting outcome, in which the central bank may announce a tapering timeline.

India VIX, a barometer of volatility, plunged over 5 per cent. But the movement of headline indices shows traders are not keen to go long ahead of an extended weekend.

The 30-share pack Sensex declined 257 points or 0.43 per cent to close at 59,772. The index fell nearly 600 points from the day’s high. Its broader peer NSE Nifty dropped 60 points or 0.33 per cent to 17,829.

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“After a sideways movement post its positive opening, the indices took a downturn as major global indices traded weak ahead of the Fed policy announcement. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce the tapering of its asset purchase program in the near-term while any hint on interest rate reversal is keeping investors on the edge,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

Market at a glance:

  • Trent gains 4% as performance improves rapidly in Q2
  • Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders continues rally, jumps another 6%
  • Bharti Airtel drops 2% after Q2 show despite improved performance
  • SBI adds 2% after superb Q2 numbers; Street expects re-rating
  • IPO watch: SJS subscribed 1x, Sigachi 67x and Policybazaar 9x

Among the bluechip names, L&T was the top gainer, rising 4.25 per cent. Asian Paints, Hindalco Industries, Grasim Industries, UPL, UltraTech Cements, SBI, Indian Oil and Adani Ports were among other gainers.

Sun Pharma was the top loser in the Nifty pack, falling 3.24 per cent.

IndusInd Bank

, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HDFC Bank and

Britannia

Industries were others that ended in the red.

“All eyes will be on the US Fed meeting tonight. While no action is expected on the rates, commentary on tapering, growth and inflation would be a key thing to watch out for. We reiterate our cautious view on markets and suggest limiting leveraged positions.”

— Ajit Mishra, Religare Broking

Broader market indices also declined, performing in-line with their headline peers. Nifty Smallcap fell 0.66 per cent and Nifty Midcap declined 0.27 per cent. Nifty 500, the broadest index on NSE, ended down 0.21 per cent.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, KPIT Tech, Amber Enterprises, Oberoi Realty, Trent and Godrej Properties were top gainers from the mid and smallcap indices, climbing in the range of 3-7 per cent.

Escorts, Union Bank of India, Indian Bank, IDBI, Lami Organic Chemicals and Jubilant Ingrevia were major losers from the broader market space, falling in the range of 3-6 per cent.

Sectoral matrix was mixed on the NSE. Nifty Realty was the top gainer for another day, up 1.94 per cent. Nifty Metal followed with 0.93 per cent gains. Nifty Private Bank was the top loser, down 1.84 per cent. Nifty Auto, Nifty Bank and Nifty Media were others that fell over a per cent.

Market breadth was in favour of losers as 1,585 stocks ended in the green, while 1,657 names settled with cuts. As many as 207 securities hit 52-week highs, mostly from the smallcap space. Meanwhile, 20 names hit 52-week lows, mostly from the microcap space. About 320 stocks hit upper circuit limits and 175 lower circuit limits.

European markets were trading mixed. London-based FTSE was down 0.28 per cent while Paris and Frankfurt climbed 0.01 per cent and declined 0.05 per cent, respectively. In Asia, Indonesia and Taiwan closed in the green, while the rest ended in the red. Japan was closed for a holiday.

Taliban ban use of foreign currency in Afghanistan

The Taliban announced a complete ban on the use of foreign currency in Afghanistan on Tuesday, a move sure to cause further disruption to an economy pushed to the brink of collapse by the abrupt withdrawal of international support.

The surprise move came hours after at least 25 people were killed and more than 50 wounded when gunmen attacked Afghanistan’s biggest military hospital after two heavy explosions at the site in central Kabul.

“The economic situation and national interests in the country require that all Afghans use Afghan currency in their every trade,” the Taliban said in a statement shared with journalists by one of their spokesmen.

The use of U.S. dollars is widespread in Afghanistan’s markets, while border areas use the currency of neighbouring countries such as Pakistan for trade.

The Taliban government is pressing for the release of billions of dollars of central bank reserves as the drought-stricken nation faces a cash crunch, mass starvation and a new migration crisis.

Afghanistan parked billions of dollars in assets overseas with the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks in Europe, but that money has been frozen since the Islamist Taliban ousted the Western-backed government in August.

The departure of U.S.-led forces and many international donors left the country without grants that financed three quarters of public spending.

The finance ministry said it had a daily tax take of roughly 400 million Afghanis ($4.4 million).

Although Western powers want to avert a humanitarian disaster in Afghanistan, they have refused to officially recognise the Taliban government.

42 firms selected under PLI scheme for white goods

The government on Wednesday said 42 firms, including Daikin,

Panasonic

, Syska and

Havells

, with committed investment of Rs 4,614 crore have been provisionally selected as beneficiaries under the production linked incentive (PLI) scheme for the white goods sector. A total of 52 companies had filed applications with committed investment of Rs 5,858 crore under the scheme.

The scheme will be implemented over a seven-year period from 2021-22 to 2028-29 and has an outlay of Rs 6,238 crore, which was approved by the Cabinet.

“Total 52 companies filed their application with committed investment of Rs 5,858 crore under the PLI scheme.

“After evaluation of all the applications, 42 applicants with committed investment of Rs 4,614 crore have been provisionally selected as beneficiaries under the PLI scheme,” the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement.

The selected applicants include 26 for air conditioner manufacturing with committed investments of Rs 3,898 crore and 16 for LED Lights with committed investments of Rs 716 crore.

Six applicants proposing FDI from countries sharing land border with India have been advised to submit their applications for approval, it added.

Further, four applicants have been referred to the Committee of Experts (CoE) for examination.

It added that the approved investments of Rs 4,614 crore are likely to generate net incremental production of around Rs 81,254 crore and direct employment for about 44,000 people.

“The investments in Air Conditioners will lead to manufacturing components across the complete value chain including components which are not manufactured in India with sufficient quantity,” it said.

At present, there is insignificant manufacturing of certain high value components of ACs like compressors, copper tubing and aluminium stock for foils.

Many other components like control assemblies for indoor units (IDU) or outdoor units (ODU), display units, brushless direct current motors and valves are not manufactured in enough quantity.

“All these components will now be manufactured in India in significant quantities. Similarly, LED Chip packaging, LED Drivers, LED Engines, LED Light Management Systems, PCBs including metal clad PCBs and Wire wound inductors etc. will be manufactured in India in high quantities,” it said.

Applicants provisionally selected include Daikin Airconditioning India, Amber Enterprises India Ltd, PG Technoplast, Hindalco Industries, Mettube India, Blue Star Climatech, Havells India, Johnson Controls Hitachi Air Conditioning India Ltd, Voltas, IFB Industries, Dixon Devices, Panasonic India, Syska LED Lights and Haier Appliances (India) Ltd.

Shares of Zee Ent. fall as Nifty drops

Shares of Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. slipped 0.46 per cent to Rs 312.5 in Wednesday’s trade as of 12:49PM (IST). It hit a high of Rs 315.3 and low of Rs 308.0 during the session.

The stock quoted a 52-week high price of Rs 362.85 and a low of Rs 166.8. The return on equity for the stock stood at 7.92 per cent. About 290,973 shares have changed hands on the counter so far.

The stock’s beta value, which measures its volatility in relation to the broader market, stood at 0.98.

The scrip has been an outperformer, up 71.68 per cent in the past one year in comparison with a 47.64 per cent gain in Sensex.

Technicals
On the technical charts, the 200-day moving average (DMA) of the stock stood at Rs 166.8 on November 03, while the 50-DMA was at Rs 265.18. If a stock trades well above 50-DMA and 200-DMA, it usually means the immediate trend is upward. On the other hand, if the stock trades well below 50-DMA and 200-DMA both, it is considered a bearish trend and if trades between these averages, then it suggests the stock can go either way.

Promoter/FII Holding
Promoters held 0.22 per cent stake in Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. as of 30-Sep-2021. Mutual funds and foreign institutional investors held 7.26 per cent and 57.18 per cent stake.

Gold declines Rs 375; silver crashes Rs 898

New Delhi: Gold price in the national capital on Wednesday tumbled by Rs 375 to Rs 46,411 per 10 grams amid a decline in the international prices of precious metals as well as rupee appreciation, according to HDFC Securities. In the previous trade, the precious metal had settled at Rs 46,786 per 10 gram.

Silver also tumbled Rs 898 to Rs 62,052 per kilogram from Rs 62,950 per kilogram in the previous trade.

The Indian rupee surged 22 paise to close at 74.46 against the US dollar on Wednesday.

In the international market, gold traded lower at USD 1,781 per ounce and silver was flat at USD 23.48 per ounce.

Gold prices traded weak with spot gold prices at COMEX trading 0.32 per cent down at USD 1,781 per ounce on Wednesday,” HDFC Securities Senior Analyst (Commodities) Tapan Patel said.

Q2 disbursement up 68% over Q1: PNB Housing Finance MD

“We saw an increase in NPAs in the first quarter. However, we have reduced our NPAs significantly by 50 bps and the collection efficiency is back,” says Hardayal Prasad, MD & CEO,

PNB Housing Finance

Are you witnessing improvement in collection efficiency and asset quality? What kind of trends do you see shaping up from here on?
In terms of the asset quality, this has been a reasonably good quarter for us and especially if you look at the retail where the push is coming. We have been able to reduce our NPAs by almost about 50 bps and the net NPAs in the retail standard is less than 2.5. That is a very good story.

In terms of the collection efficiency, we are at 98.6% which is almost pre Covid levels and far better than last quarter which was 96.6%. This company is unique in terms of the profiles of its customers with a strong push on the self-employed. In April and May, Covid 2.0 wiped off some of the businesses and a lot of people lost their lives. That was why we saw an increase in our NPAs in the first quarter. However, the journey has started. We have reduced our NPAs significantly by 50 bps and the collection efficiency is back.

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The only thing that we would have liked is in the corporate book. One of the accounts that has slipped in this quarter is one which we had identified and we had told everybody that there are three or four significantly risky accounts where we expect to slip. We have allowed only one account to slip and therefore the net effect is the reduction of only about eight on the gross NPAs. However, in retail, the story is very good and going forward. The way our machinery is working, the way legal channels have opened up and the administration is supporting, it is going to be a very good story going forward.

Lending in the mortgage finance sector is improving. How are the trends shaping up at your end? What is your observation on the disbursement side?
We have done a fairly good job in the disbursement with significant increases. We disbursed almost about Rs 3,000 crore during the quarter which registered a 68% quarter-on-quarter growth. We will only continue to improve and we have seen quarter-on-quarter and month-on-month improvement on the disbursement. So the disbursement engines have started. We have a strong distribution network and are present in 65 cities with 95 branches and almost 17-18 offbeat centres. The affordable piece is also shaping up well.

So that is a very calibrated and cautious decision that the company has taken. In terms of the disbursements, the company has done a good job. Secondly, we have arrested the de-growth that was happening in the last nine quarters.

How are your borrowing costs shaping up? Is it likely to be a pressure point on your margins going forward?
This is the first time our incremental cost of borrowing has come below 6%. You must compare apples and apples and we are an AA rated company. Within that, we have been able to negotiate with all the lenders. Below 6% incremental cost of borrowing is very good.

In terms of overall cost of borrowing, there is a decline of almost 68 bps which again is a good sign. So we are seeing an improvement in borrowing cost. We have also made some changes in the way we do business with almost 47% of the acquisition coming from the digital side. We will see a decline in the cost of acquisition going forward.

This is all going to help the company in improving its numbers but it is going to take some time. One can expect it to start delivering immediately. There is a lag effect of the investment that you have made on the IT side which is going to fructify and start delivering and the ability to get very high number comes in because of the digitisation that we have done.

We have utilised the last eight quarters to improve our IT stack and that is very critical from our perspective on all the things we are going to deliver on.

Capital adequacy is hovering around the 20% mark. I think the rights issue is going on. What is the thought from here on?
Obviously raising Rs 4,000 crore is not all that easy. While the company stakeholders like PNB, Carlyle and many others have been extremely supportive of the way the company is growing as well as its future projections and what it wants to do

They were supportive and we came out with that issue. Unfortunately for whatever reason, we have continuously issued press releases as well as stock exchange releases in terms of what happened and why we had to decide to pull back. More importantly, the company wants to grow and move forward. Presently, we are comfortably capitalised with CRAR at 20.66 and the tier I is also at 17.82.

The very fact that we have decided and we are continuing to lose on our corporates, gives us the ability to build assets because risk assets are almost three times that available on the retail book.

What is your business transformation plan?
There are two things. One is on the digital side. The company took advantage of the Covid situation in the last two years and has actually improved its IT. It continues to look at the digitisation and what all opportunities that are there, new openings, new areas where it can automate. Any area in the acquisition side to the underwriting side to the risk side or the servicing side, where we see friction, we want to automate it and have started doing it.

In terms of the interventions that we are doing on the project IGNITE, which is the transformation journey of the company, in the first few months we finished off the diagnostic study which was important to understand where the gaps are. Then comes the second journey, We wanted to look at was on the underwriting and the risk piece; how we underwrite, whether there are changes, whether new engines are required and what all is required for quick decision making with technology available with us with more information available, with surrogate information available.

The third piece was on collection which we wanted to strengthen. Any company which wants to grow and is a lending company must have its collection strategy very clearly laid down.

NHAI launches InvIT, board will meet to allocate units

As part of National Monetisation Pipeline, National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) has launched its Infrastructure Investment Trust (NHAI InvIT), said a press statement.

In view of the long-term nature of the assets, the units of NHAI InvIT were offered to international and domestic institutional investors. The total enterprise value of the 5 roads was pegged at Rs.8011.52 crore, added the statement.

NHAI InvIT is funding that through debt of Rs.2000 crore from State Bank of India, Axis Bank and Bank of Maharshtra. The balance is being funded by issuing units of Rs.6011.52 crore to international and domestic institutional investors, and NHAI as Sponsor.

NHAI InvIT was able to attract international pension funds and a persified group of domestic institutional investors comprising pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, banks and financial institutions, which have submitted their bids for Rs.6203 crore, said NHAI.

The Board of the Investment Manager of NHAI InvIT will meet on November 3, 2021 to decide on the allocation of units to investors.

“NHAI InvIT is expected to provide attractive long term returns to its investors. Participation by marquee international and domestic investors will also benefit NHAI InvIT in the areas of governance, transparency and quality maintenance of national assets,” said Giridhar Armane, Secretary MoRTH and NHAI Chairman.

NHAI InvIT has been set up to monetize its road projects, with an initial portfolio of five operating toll roads with an aggregate length of 390 kilometers.

These roads are located across the states of Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Telangana. NHAI has granted new concessions of 30-years for these roads.

This is the second InvIT in the country to be floated by a public sector company after PowerGrid Corporation of India (PGC) raised about Rs 3,480 crore in April.

Three top Canadian pension funds, including Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ), and leading local insurers such as Life Insurance Corp. of India and HDFC Life are among the frontline investors likely to buy into the InvIT, ET had reported in August.

Other likely investors are the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTTP), besides India’s ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, ET had said.

Besides institutional investors, the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) is also considering an investment in the InvIT.

As part of the monetisation programme announced by the government, NHAI plans to sell about 32 more operational road assets spanning 1,500 km as well as upcoming ToT (toll operate transfer) projects.

Trade Setup: Nifty50 to remain rangebound; stay high stock-specific

After a strong technical rebound in the previous session, Nifty50 chose to consolidate as it ended the session with a modest cut. Nifty50 opened on a positive note; it marked its high point in the early minutes of the day. It tested the 18000-level and expectedly found some resistance there. The markets gradually pared their opening gains to slip in the negative territory. For most of the session, Nifty50 didn’t take any directional view despite trading with a negative bias. Some weakness was seen in the late afternoon session which was followed by a modest recovery from lower levels. Nifty50 ended the day losing 40.70 points (-0.23 per cent).

Markets have a couple of factors to deal with this week. Firstly, the FOMC meeting starts today; the taper worries, the outcome of the meet that will come on Wednesday night, and its commentary is something that the markets will react to. Additionally, Wednesday is practically the last working day of the week as Thursday will host just a symbolic one-hour Mahurat trading session. Hence, weekly options will expire on Wednesday instead of Thursday. Given the options data, it is seen that Nifty50 is likely to stay range-bound with the level of 18000 acting as resistance on the upside.

Volatility declined as India VIX came off by 1 per cent to 17.0625. On Wednesday, Nifty50 is likely to see resistance at the levels of 17930 and 18000. Supports come in at 17800 and 17745 levels.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is at 49.82; it stays neutral and does not show any pergence against the price. The daily MACD is bearish and it is below the signal line.

Nifty 50ETMarkets.com

Nifty50 formed a black-bodied candle on the daily chart; apart from this, no other formations were noticed on the candles.

The fabric of the markets has been highly stock-specific over the past couple of weeks. It is likely to remain this way at least for the immediate near term. We are unlikely to see any sectoral dominance from the relative performance point of view. We will see those stocks outperforming whose results are out of the way, and whose Relative Strength against the broader markets is improving. The midcap universe is likely to continue outperforming relatively against the broader market. We recommend staying highly stock-specific, avoiding shorts, and keeping leveraged positions to modest levels. A cautiously positive outlook is advised for the day.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of EquityResearch.asia and ChartWizard.ae (ChartWizard, FZE) and is based at Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Day Trading Guide: 2 stock recommendations for Wednesday

Aditya Agarwala, YES Securities

Nifty50 closed marginally in the red following a sharp recovery in the previous session as bears made sure the index stays below the 20-DMA line placed at 18,050, which is acting as a key hurdle on the upside. Further, heading into the weekly expiry session and auspicious Muhurat trading, Nifty50 has entered a narrow trading range between 17,800 and 18,050. A sustained trade above 17,800 could trigger an up move, taking the index higher to levels of 18,050 where bears continue to maintain selling pressure. However, failure to hold onto the lower end of the range, i.e. 17800 could resume fresh selling dragging Nifty50 lower to the levels of 17,700-17,600.

Equity recommendation


HDFC Bank

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BUY at CMP Rs 1607
Target: Rs 1890
Stop Loss: Rs 1560
The stock has turned upwards after taking support at the trendline and the 50-DMA. Further, volumes have been good in the buying, as bullish candlestick following the hammer candlestick suggesting bullishness. Moreover, RSI has formed a positive reversal confirming the uptrend.

Oberoi Realty


BUY at CMP Rs 972

Target: Rs 1070
Stop Loss: Rs 920
The stock is on the verge of a breakout from an Ascending Triangle pattern neckline suggesting bullishness dominant. Further, RSI moving back above the 60-level confirms the uptrend.

(The author, Aditya Agarwala is Senior Technical Analyst at YES Securities. Views are his own.)

FPI holding in NSE stocks crossed Rs 50 lakh crore mark in Q2

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) owned over Rs 50 lakh crore worth of Indian shares in the September quarter, the first time ever. At the same time, LIC’s ownership of Indian stocks too swelled to an all-time high in value terms. But both FPI and LIC’s share in NSE stocks fell during the quarter gone by, data compiled by primeinfobase.com, an initiative of PRIME Database Group suggest.

As per the study, FPI holding in companies listed on NSE crossed Rs 50 lakh crore for the first time ever to reach an all-time high of Rs 54.69 lakh crore as on September 30, 2021.

This was an increase of 12.03 per cent from Rs 48.82 lakh crore as on June 30, 2021, primarily driven by an extraordinarily buoyant secondary market during the quarter, said Pranav Haldea, Managing Director, PRIME Database Group. Sensex and Nifty climbed 12.66 and 12.07 per cent, respectively, during this period.

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That said, FPI inflows stood at mere Rs 3,928 crore during the quarter, resulting in FPIs share declining to 21.47 per cent as on September 30, 2021, from 21.66 per cent as on June 30, 2021, Haldea said.

TableeET CONTRIBUTORS

LIC’s holding of domestic stocks — it owns over 1 per cent stake in 281 companies — too reached an all-time high of Rs 9.39 lakh crore in the quarter but the largest insurer’s share in NSE stocks declined to an all-time low of 3.69 per cent as on September 30, down from 3.74 per cent as on June 30, and from an all-time high of 5 per cent as on June 30, 2012. LIC continued to command a lion’s share of investments in equities by insurance companies (77 per cent share).

According to Haldea, after five quarters of consecutive decline, the holding of domestic mutual funds in companies listed on NSE increased to 7.36 per cent as on September 30 from 7.25 per cent as on June 30. The share has increased on the back of huge net inflows by domestic mutual funds of Rs 38,221 crore during the quarter. In value terms as well, the holding of domestic mutual funds went up by 14.82 per cent to an all-time high of Rs 18.75 lakh crore as on September 30 from Rs 16.33 lakh crores on June 30.

Holding of insurance companies as a whole declined to a six-year low of 4.81 per cent as on September 30 down from 4.89 per cent as on June 30. In rupee value terms though, it went up by 11.23 per cent from the previous quarter to an all-time high of Rs 12.26 lakh crores as on September 30.

The total institutional ownership viz. FPI and DII also declined to a 3-year low of 34.59 per cent in the quarter ending September 30, 2021, down from 34.85 in the quarter ending June 30, 2021.

The top 10 per cent of companies by market capitalisation accounted for a huge 91 per cent of overall FPI holding as on September 30, 2021, down from 91.11 per cent on June 30. “Disclosure of holdings of FPIs by name is only available for holdings in a company greater than 1 per cent. What is significant to note is that such cases represent only 15.90 per cent of the overall FPI holding (Rs 8.70 lakh crore of the Rs 54.69 lakh crore),” Haldea said.

According to Haldea, FPIs are the largest non-promoter shareholders in the Indian market and their investment decisions have a huge bearing on the stock prices and overall direction of the market. “It is thus time that complete details of all their holdings be made mandatory to be disclosed in India,” he said.

Holding of retail investors in companies listed on NSE reduced marginally to 7.13 per cent as on September 30, 2021, from 7.18 as on June 30, 2021. In rupee value terms, retail holding in companies listed on NSE reached an all-time high of Rs 18.16 lakh crore from Rs 16.18 lakh crore on June 30, 2021, an increase of 12.25 per cent.

Holding of High Net Worth Inpiduals (HNIs) in companies listed on NSE increased marginally to 2.12 per cent as on September 30, 2021, from 2.10 per cent on June 30, 2021, taking the combined retail and HNI holding to 9.25 per cent.

The percentage holding of the government as a promoter in companies listed on NSE decreased to 5.56 per cent as on September 30 from 6.05 per cent as on June 30.

The percentage holding of private promoters in companies listed on NSE increased by nearly 50 basis points to 44.90 per cent from 44.42 per cent quarter-on-quarter, signifying confidence in the valuations. Over a 12-year period (since June 2009), private promoter ownership has been steadily increasing, having increased from 33.60 per cent on June 30, 2009. In rupee value terms, private promoter holding in companies listed on NSE has gone up over 7 times to Rs 114.39 lakh crore from just Rs 14.50 lakh crore on June 30, 2009, also aided by new listings.

There were seven companies, namely — Hatsun Agro Product, Tanla Platforms, Man Infraconstruction, Eveready Industries India, Titagarh Wagons, Spencer’s Retail and Speciality Restaurants — in which the trinity of promoters, FPIs and DIIs all increased their stake during the quarter.