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AUD/USD Finds Some Comfort At 0.97

The AUD/USD is presently trying to rally a little and move back towards 0.98, after having recently bounced off the short term support level at 97 cents late last week. It has experienced its worst week in a long time which has seen it continue to move to new lows near 0.97, from highs not so long ago above 1.0250, although in the last couple of trading days it has settled a little and found some support at 97 cents. It has slowed its decline a little however in this recent period and moved to a new 11 month low near 0.9700. It is likely the 1.00 level may now provide some resistance to higher prices as the AUD/USD tried to claw back some lost ground. At the end of the week a couple of weeks ago, it experienced its largest 24 hour drop in a long time, falling strongly down through 1.02 and 1.01. Last week saw this form continue falling sharply back down below parity. It has now experienced an ordinary last couple of weeks as it wasn’t so long ago it was moving up above 1.03 and threatening the key level at 1.0360. Up until recently, the 1.02 level was one of significance, presented as a long term support level; However, this has now clearly been broken. The pair had been showing some bearish signs over the last few weeks as it continued to place selling pressure on the 1.0220 and 1.02 levels. The RBA rate cut a couple of weeks ago was the catalyst for a strong push lower, seeing it just fall very heavily as if all support gave way. The past few weeks have seen the AUD/USD establish a strong medium term down trend with lower peaks and lower troughs, as it has moved from near 1.04 down to below 1 during that time. In the previous few weeks, the AUD/USD spent most of its time trading between 1.02 and 1.0360. During that time, it moved up to a two week high and back towards 1.04. Recently though, it quickly handed back all of those gains and then some. A couple of times in that same period it received solid support around 1.0220, just above the key long term level at 1.02. Over the course of the last month, the Australian dollar has fallen very sharply from near 1.06 to its lows near 0.9700, and in doing so, it also completely ignored any likely support at either 1.04 or 1.0360. In contrast, the week prior, it enjoyed a solid week moving strongly off the key level of 1.0360 towards 1.06 and to its highest levels since January. Up until mid April, the Australian dollar was enjoying its best move higher since October and November last year. Up until earlier this week, the AUD/USD spent the best part of a month trading between the two key levels of 1.0220 and 1.0360 and it will take some effort to return it to this range, with the resistance being offered at the 1.02 level and now likely at 1 too. The Australian dollar continues to slide against the US currency, as the pair broke through the 0.98 line in Friday’s Asian session. The pair has fallen to the mid-97 range and shows no signs of finding its footing. Overall, the Aussie has had a miserable May, shedding a remarkable six cents since the start of the month. The beleaguered Aussie has been taking it on the chin from all corners. New Motor Vehicle Sales, an important consumer indicator, looked weak, and the budget release indicates that Australia will post a record deficit. The RBA has also contributed to the currency’s free-fall. The recent interest rate cut, which surprised the markets, pushed down on the Australian dollar. The central bank added more fuel to the fire when it stated in its Monetary Policy Statement that it expected “subdued” growth from the economy.

Daily Chart & 4 Hourly Chart

AUD/USD May 20 at 03:10 GMT 0.9773 H: 0.9775 L: 0.9730

AUD/USD Technical” title=”AUD/USD Technical” width=”598″ height=”77″ />During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Monday, the AUD/USD is trying to rally a little and move back towards 0.98, after having recently bounced off the short term support level at 97 cents late last week. Up until a few weeks ago, the AUD/USD was spending a fair amount of time within a trading range roughly between the key levels of 1.04 and 1.05, however that range seems a distant memory as it has fallen down to a 11 month low near 0.9700. In moving through to 1.0580 only a few weeks ago, it moved to its highest level since January. Current range: trading right around 0.9765.Further levels in both directions:• Below: 0.9800.• Above: 1.0000, 1.0360 and 1.0550.

Position Ratios

(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)The long position ratio for the AUD/USD remains above 70% which is it highest level in a long time, as the Australian dollar has moved back down towards 97 cents. The trader sentiment remains strongly in favour of long positions.Economic Releases

  • 05:00 JP Leading indicator (Final) (Mar)

Currencies Signaling Weakness Ahead For China?

The Aussie dollar is hugging support half-way through Monday’s U.S. trading day.

AUD/USD” width=”887″ height=”660″ />I’ll need to see China’s Shanghai Index advance and hold above the Daily 50-MA to, potentially, support any attempted rally in the AUD/USD forex pair.

Shanghai Index

A drop and hold below 1.00 on the AUD/CAD forex pair could signal harder times ahead for China, particularly if the above scenarios do not materialize.

AUD/CAD” width=”874″ height=”658″ />That may, then, produce a drag on any further advancement in North American markets. As well, further weakness in commodities may also produce the same effect. You can see from the first chart above that DBC (the Commodities ETF) is attempting to stabilize — after experiencing considerable weakness this year and, basically, since 2011. I’ll be watching for any break-and-hold below its last weekly swing low.

AUD/USD: Aussie’s Woes Continue After Budget Release

The Australian dollar continues to slump against the US currency, as the pair was testing the 0.99 line early in Tuesday’s North American session. The Aussie has had a miserable May, losing an astounding four cents since the start of the month. AUD/USD lost more ground on Tuesday after the Australian annual budget pointed to a record deficit. Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales, an important consumer spending indicator, will be released on Wednesday. In the US, there are only two releases on Tuesday. The slumping Australian dollar got no help from the release of the Australian budget earlier on Tuesday. The government, which faces elections later this year, shied away from deep spending cuts but also was forced to revise an earlier forecast of a surplus. In October, the government stated that it would post a modest surplus of A$2.2 billion for 2013/2014,, but was forced to revise this to a record deficit of A$19.4 billion. The government blamed the high Australian dollar and weak commodity prices for a dramatic loss in revenue. Meanwhile, both the Standard & Poor’s and Moody rating agencies maintained Australia’s AAA rating, despite the bleak budget. The budget release may be weighing on the Australian dollar, but the currency’s was in trouble last week as well. For starters, the RBA rate cut, which surprised the markets, took the wind out of the Australian dollar’s sails. The central bank added more fuel to the fire on Friday, when it forecast in its Monetary Policy Statement that it expected “subdued” growth from the economy. As well, the markets are abuzz with a report that George Soros has taken a large short position on the Australian dollar, and hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller is also bearish on the Aussie. The US ran into some turbulence in April with disappointing key releases, but we are seeing some improvement, notably from employment figures. This has raised speculation that the Fed might adjust or even terminate its QE program, in which it buys $85 billion in assets every month. Terminating the QE program is dollar positive, and the US dollar was broadly stronger against all the major currencies late last week. The markets will be looking for any clues as to the Fed ending QE, which would likely push the dollar higher. So far, the Federal Reserve has not make any comments that could be construed as indicating any change from the present course of action.

AUD_USD

AUD/USD May 14 at 13:25 GMTAUD/USD 99.12 H: 1.004 L: 98.96

AUD/USD Technical” title=”AUD/USD Technical” width=”600″ height=”77″ />AUD/USD continues to lose ground, and is currently trading slightly above the 99 line. The pair is facing resistance at the important parity level. This line has strengthened as the pair trades at lower levels. The next resistance line is at 1.0080. On the downside, the pair is testing support at 0.9907. This line was breached earlier, and could fall if the downward trend continues. The next support level is 0.9795.

  • Current range: 0.9907 to 1.00

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9907, 0.9795, 0.9627 and 0.9541
  • Above: 1.00, 1.0080, 1.01 and 1.0174

OANDA’s Open Positions RatioAUD/USD ratio remains unchanged for the second straight day. This is not reflected in the pair’s current movement, as AUD/USD continues to lose ground. If the pair continues to show strong movement, we can expect the ratio to show activity as well.AUD/USD can’t seem to find a break, and on Tuesday it was the Australian budget release which helped push the Aussie even lower. In the budget, the government blamed the high value of the Australian dollar for contributing to the bleak economic situation. Perhaps the government will find some comfort in the fact that the Aussie has plunged around four cents in the past two weeks. There is room for the pair to move lower, and much will depend on US and Australian releases on Wednesday.AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 9:30 Australian Annual Budget Release.
  • 11:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 89.9 points. Actual 92.1 points
  • 12:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -0.5%. Actual 0.5%

AUD/USD Plunges To Parity

AUD/USD (daily chart) has finally broken down the below the long-term trading range between 1.0150 and 1.0600, and has further plunged to hit a low slightly below parity (1.0000). This price event is especially pivotal as the pair has been unable to break down below major previous support at 1.0150 for many months. Currently, price has established a new 10-month low around parity and has opened the way for further potential decline. The broken 1.0150 level should now serve as intermediate resistance within the context of the current bearish momentum. A significant breakdown below parity could move the pair towards further downside support objectives around 0.9875 and 0.9650.

AUD/USD Daily Chart” title=”AUD/USD Daily Chart” width=”530″ height=”248″ />Disclosure: FX Solutions assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials. FX Solutions does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. FX Solutions shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials.The products offered by FX Solutions are leveraged products which carry a high level of risk to your capital with the possibility of losing more than your initial investment and may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

AUD/USD Settles Above 96 Cents, For Now

The AUD/USD has done very little in quiet trading over the last 24 hours and has remained sitting just above the 0.9600 level. It is still facing an uphill battle trying to rally higher after it finished last week under 97 cents and appears to be placing a lot of selling pressure on the 96 cents level. Last week it enjoyed a relatively solid few days which saw it halt the falls and rally back up towards 0.9850 before a sharp which saw it drop two cents. The week prior it experienced its worst week in a long time which saw it continue to move to new lows near 0.98, from highs not so long ago above 1.0250, although last week it did settle a little and find some support at the long term support level at 97 cents. Although presently appearing unlikely in the short term, should it recover and move back, it is likely the 1.00 level may now provide some resistance to higher prices.The AUD/USD has now experienced an ordinary last few weeks as it wasn’t so long ago it was moving up above 1.03 and threatening the key level at 1.0360. Up until earlier in May, the 1.02 level was one of significance and presented as a long term support level however this has now clearly been broken. It had been showing some bearish as it continued to place selling pressure on the 1.0220 and 1.02 levels and the RBA rate cut a few weeks ago was the catalyst for a strong push lower, seeing it just fall very heavily as if all support gave way. The last month or so have seen the AUD/USD establish a strong medium term down trend with lower peaks and lower troughs, as it has moved from near 1.06 down to below 0.96 in that time.Over the course of the last month, the Australian dollar has fallen very sharply from near 1.06 to its lows just below 0.9600, and in doing so, it also completely ignored any likely support at either 1.04 or 1.0360. In contrast, the week prior, it enjoyed a solid week moving strongly off the key level of 1.0360 towards 1.06 and to its highest levels since January. Up until mid April, the Australian dollar was enjoying its best move higher since October and November last year. Up until a few weeks ago, the AUD/USD spent the best part of a month trading between the two key levels of 1.0220 and 1.0360 and it will take some effort to return it to this range, with the resistance being offered at the 1.02 level and now likely at 1 too.The Aussie’s misery continues, as the currency has crashed, losing over seven cents against the US dollar since the beginning of May. The surprise interest rate cut by the RBA hurt the currency, as did a bleak budget which pointed a finger at the high value of the Australian dollar as hurting the economy – hardly a vote of confidence in the Aussie. The Australian dollar was also hit hard following remarks by Bernard Bernanke, who was testifying before a Congressional committee. Bernanke initially stated that tightening monetary policy could hurt the US recovery. However, he later said that a decision to scale back QE could be taken in the “next few meetings” if the US economy improves. The bottom line? Bernanke’s comments still leave the markets guessing as to the Fed’s plans regarding the current quantitative easing (QE) program. The Fed is not making any changes to its monetary policy, but that could change if the US economy improves and unemployment falls.

Daily Chart – 4 Hourly Chart

AUD/USD May 28 at 01:45 GMT 0.9605 H: 0.9665 L: 0.9597

AUDUSD Technical

During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the AUD/USD is continuing to trade within a narrow range right around 0.9630. A month ago the AUD/USD was spending a fair amount of time trading roughly between 1.02 and 1.0550, however that range seems a distant memory as it has fallen down to near a 12 month low below 0.9600 late last week. In moving through to 1.0580 only a month ago, it moved to its highest level since January. Current range: trading right around 0.9630.Further levels in both directions:• Below: 0.9600.• Above: 0.9850 and 1.0000.

Position Ratios

(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has just pushed even higher to 75% as the Australian dollar has fallen lower and now rests just above 96 cents. The trader sentiment remains strongly in favour of long positions.Economic Releases

  • 06:00 CH Trade Balance (Apr)
  • 06:00 UK Nationwide House Prices (28th-31st) (May)
  • 13:00 US S&P Case-Shiller Home Price (Mar)
  • 14:00 US Consumer Confidence (May)

Aussie Tad Lower After RBA Minutes

AUD/USD” title=”AUD/USD” width=”640″ height=”444″ />For the 24 hours leading to 23:00 GMT, the AUD strengthened 0.50% against the USD and closed at 0.9813.LME Copper prices declined 0.7% or $53.50/MT to $7276.0/MT. Aluminum prices declined 1.6% or $29.50/MT to $1811.0/MT.In the Asian session at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9809 with the AUD trading 0.04% lower from yesterday’s close, after the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) confirmed the case for a further rate cut.Economic data released this morning indicated that the leading indicator in Australia rose 0.1% in March, following a 0.3% increase recorded the previous month.The pair is expected to find support at 0.9764, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9718. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9842, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9874.The currency pair is trading above its 20 and 50 Hr moving averages.

AUD/USD Stays In A Trading Range

The AUD/USD is staying in a trading range between 0.9528 and 0.9791. Key resistance is now at 0.9791. As long as this level holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 1.0582 (April 11 high). One more fall to 0.9300 area is still possible after consolidation. On the upside, a break above 0.9791 resistance will indicate that a lengthier consolidation of the downtrend is underway, then a further rise to 0.9850 – 0.9900 area could be seen.

audusd

AUD/USD Slides As Aussie GDP Misses Expectations

The Australian dollar continues to lose ground in Wednesday trading. AUD/USD has fallen to the 0.9570 range early in the North American session. The Aussie took a hit as Australian GDP came in short of the estimate, disappointing the markets. The Australian dollar has slumped badly, shedding close to two cents since Tuesday. The news was not good out of the US either, as ADP Non-Farm Employment Change was well below its estimate. Wednesday’s other highlight, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, will be released later today. The Aussie continues on its unhappy southward journey, losing more ground on Wednesday after a disappointing Australian GDP. GDP gained a respectable 0.6% in Q1, but fell short of the 0.8% expectation. As one of the most important indicators, GDP showed once again that it is a market-mover, and the Australian dollar has lost close to one cent since its release. The RBA did not have any surprises up its sleeve this time, and maintained the key interest rate at 2.75%. This was widely expected by the markets, but the Aussie still took a hit. The reason? The RBA was very clear in stating that there is room for further cuts. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens noted that the “inflation outlook, as currently assessed, may provide some scope for further easing, should that be required.” The central bank has kept an easing bias in place, and we could see another cut in August, following the release of inflation numbers in late July. In the US, another key indicator posted a weak reading, as ADP Non-Farm Employment Change rose to 135 thousand, but was way off the forecast of 171 thousand. This was the third consecutive release to miss expectations, and will likely raise concerns about the extent of the US recovery. There has been a lot of speculation about whether the US Federal Reserve will scale back its quantitative easing program, but the Fed is unlikely to take action if the US employment picture remains problematic.

AUD_USD

AUD/USD June 5 at 13:40 GMTAUD/USD 0.9551 H: 0.9648 L: 0.9548

AUDUSD Technical

AUD/USD continues to lose ground in Wednesday trading. On the upside, the pair faces resistance at 0.9651. This line has strengthened as the pair trades at lower levels. On the downside, the pair is testing support at 0.9541. This line could fall if the Aussie continues to sag. There is a stronger support level at 0.9405.

  • Current range: 0.9541 to 0.9651

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9541, 0.9405, 93.28 and 92.21
  • Above: o.9651, 0.9727, 0.9795, 0.9907 and 1.00

OANDA’s Open Positions RatioAUD/USD ratio continues to point to movement towards long positions in the Wednesday session. As a result of the Aussie’s sharp losses this week, short positions are being covered, resulting in the movement we are seeing in the ratio, which is overwhelmingly made up of long positions.The Australian dollar continues to struggle, and has posted sharp drops this week. Will the downward trend continue? Australia releases Trade Balance early on Thursday, and this market-mover could result in more volatility from AUD/USD.AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 1:30 Australian GDP. Estimate 0.8%. Actual 0.6%
  • 12:15 US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. Estimate 171K. Actual 135K
  • 12:30 US Revised Non-Farm Productivity. Estimate 0.7%. Actual 0.5%
  • 12:30 US Revised Unit Labor Costs. Estimate 0.5%. Actual -4.3%
  • 14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.4 points.
  • 14:00 US Factory Orders. Estimate 1.6%.
  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -0.8M.
  • 18:00 US Beige Book.

Aussie Trading Lower This Morning

AUD/USD” title=”AUD/USD” width=”1758″ height=”808″ />On Friday, the AUD weakened 0.65% against the USD to close at 0.9495.Over the weekend, China released a string of economic releases, wherein China’s consumer price index dropped 0.6% (MoM) in May, while the producer price index slipped 2.9% (YoY) in May. Industrial production rose less than anticipated in May, while retail sales recorded a rise in May. Moreover, China’s trade surplus widened to $20.43 billion in May.LME Copper prices declined 0.4% or $29.0/MT to $7282.0/MT. Aluminum prices rose 0.3% or $6.0/MT to $1933.5/MT.In the Asian session at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9410 with the AUD trading 0.90% lower from Friday’s close.The pair is expected to find support at 0.9347, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9283. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9525, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9639..

AUD/USD’s Free Fall Pauses At Major Support

AUD/USD on the daily chart has tentatively paused in its free fall of the past month around major support in the 0.9400 price region.19-Month LowThis swift decline to key support has just established a 19-month low for the pair, as the last time the exchange rate dropped to the current depths was in October 2011. The recent plunge began in earnest in early May when the pair broke down below a major trading range between 1.0150 and 1.0600. This breakdown led to a drop below parity (1.0000) and then successively lower support levels within a short period of time. A minor bullish correction hit a high of 0.9790 early last week, but the price quickly continued the downtrend with an inverted flag pattern breakdown to hit the current lows around 0.9400 support. The strong bearishness is not showing signs of abating. Key downside targets on a breakdown below 0.9400 reside around 0.9200 and then 0.9000.

AUD/USD: Daily” width=”1276″ height=”554″ />