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EUR/JPY Fails At 130.35 For The Third Time

For the third time, bulls on this pair could not break the local top at 130.35. This weakness had already drovin them towards local supports at 129.95 and 129.80. The first one was broken during the Asian session, and will be the closest resistance at the start of the European session. The bearish movement is supported by the blue line, which is connecting recent lower highs.

EUR/JPY” title=”EUR/JPY” width=”659″ height=”323″ />The price is getting closer to the mid-term uptrend line (red) and we can assume that it will act as a strong support. If bears manage to break it, we should expect a further drop aiming for the 129.30 support. The current sentiment stays negative in the short run, but in the longer run traders can remain positive and use the lower levels for opening long positions.

EUR/JPY: Set To Rise Further

Autochartist recently identified the Falling Wedge on the 4-hour EUR/JPY charts, as you can see from the following trade opportunity alert that I received today for this currency pair. The pair is set to rise further toward the target level 132.085 in the next 21 hours (point B, on the chart below, this level corresponds to the last reversal point of the upper resistance trendline of this Falling Wedge). The stop-level for this forecast is set by Autochartist at 129.35 (the bottom of this chart pattern, point A). This trade alert is aligned with the predominant uptrend visible on the daily charts – which increases the probability the pair will rise to the target level 132.085 in the next 21 hours.

EUR/JPY 1″ title=”EUR/JPY 1″ width=”600″ height=”368″ />The following Volatility Analysis chart for EUR/JPY also confirms the above bullish scenario. As you can see here, the entire daily Expected Price Range calculated by Autochartist (from 129.77 to 131.84) stands above the stop-level set in the above trade alert (129.35) – which heightens the probability the pair will not trigger this stop-level in the nearest time and will continue to advance toward target level 132.085 tomorrow.


EUR/JPY With A Chance For An Upswing

Since May 22, the EUR/JPY is in a downtrend restricted by the blue trendline. Bearish movement stopped on June 13, and bulls started the counter attack. As we can see on the chart, Fibonacci levels often play important roles of the support and resistance levels. Price is currently near the trendline, and is forming a flag (green lines) which can be considered as trend continuation pattern, which in this case is more positive for bulls as it was created after 5 days of ,upswing.


At the beginning of the European session price is under 38.2 Fibonacci level which will be the closest resistance for the European traders. As long as price stays above 23.6 Fibonacci level we may consider a positive scenario that may result in breaking the blue line. If 23.6 will be broken, it will mean the definite come back to the bearish trend.

EUR/JPY: Set To Rise Further

As you can see from the following trade opportunity alert that I received recently for EUR/JPY, this pair is expected to rise toward the Key Resistance Level 131.41 (of the type Approach) in the next 8 trading days. Autochartist sets the stop-level for this bullish forecast at 123.0638. The pair recently reversed strongly up (at point A) from the combined support area lying at the intersection of the support level 125.00 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the preceding daily upward price impulse from April (which earlier broke the resistance trendline of the previous daily Pennant chart pattern, as you can see on the second chart below). The aforementioned resistance level 125.00 coincides with the level of the breakout of the preceding Pennant. The proximity of the strong support area around 125.00 heightens the chances the pair will continue to rise toward the target level 131.41 in the coming sessions.

EUR/JPY 1″ width=”600″ height=”367″ />The following daily EUR/JPY chart shows the aforementioned support levels:

EUR/JPY 2″ width=”600″ height=”674″ />

EUR/JPY Outlook: August, 28 2013

EUR/JPYThe cross remains under pressure as the pullback from 132.41 high extended to 129.64, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 127.96/132.41 upleg, where temporary footstep was found. Near-term price action moves in consolidative mode with corrective rallies expected to find tough barrier at 131, where 50% retracement of 132.41/129.64 downleg / previous range top, is expected to cap and maintain freshly established negative tone. Unless price breaks above 131 resistance that would shift focus higher, downside risk would remain in play. A loss of a 129.64 handle to open at a higher platform at 129.30 and round figure 129.00 support. Also a 76.4% retracement, for possible completion of 127.96/132.41 upleg. Resistance: 130.30; 130.70; 131.00; 131.35 Support: 129.64; 129.30; 129.00; 128.27


Dollar Falls To 6-Month Low Against Euro Ahead Of Fed Minutes

Dollar falls to 6-month low against euro ahead of Fed minutes The greenback tanked against euro on Tuesday ahead of the release of Fed minutes on Wednesda. The market is expecting that the July minutes meeting will offer clues to whether the central bank will pare its bond-buying measures in September. Although the single currency retreated fm 1.3356 to 1.3324 in the European morning, the strong rebound in EUR/JPY cross pushed the pair above last Friday’s top at 1.3380 to 1.3407.The price eventually climbed to a 6-month top at 1.3452 in the New York morning on the dollar’s broad-based weakness before easing. Versus the Japanese yen, despite the dollar’s brief recovery to 97.87 in Asia, active cross buying of the yen versus other currencies due to the steep fall in Nikkei-225 index pressured the pair below last Thursday’s low at 97.00 to 96.98 in the European morning. Later, the dollar’s broad-based weakness sent the pair marginally lower to 96.91 in the New York morning before stabilising. The British pound traded narrowly in Asia and dropped briefly to 1.5629 in the European morning. Renewed buying interest lifted the pair above Monday’s top at 1.5674 to 1.5680 and sterling later rose further to a fresh 8-week top at 1.5696 in tandem with euro in the New York morning before trading sideways. The Australian dollar fell sharply to a low at 0.9027 in Europe after early dovish RBA minutes in Asia but then staged a recovery to 0.9098 in New York on short-covering. The Reserve Bank of Australia released its minutes which stated that: “…members agreed should not close off possibility of further easing; neither did members want to signal an imminent intention to cut rates further; judged rate cut was appropriate at Aug meeting; ; AUD still high by historical standards, possible could fall further to help rebalancing; inflation to remain within target range even with the impact of lower AUD; expected the fall in AUD to gradually boost tradable prices over next few year; economic growth expected to remain modest for next few quarters before picking up.” In other news, German Finance Minister Schaeuble said, “…current interest rates on German government bonds are still too low.” German Finance Ministry said, “…expect German growth of 0.5-0.7% in 2013; unhealthy that Germany must pay interest rates at times below rate of inflation; there will be no new haircut for Greece but there will need to be a new aid programme; interest rates on 10-year German bonds of 2% are ok.” BOJ Governor Kuroda said, “BOJ’s stance is to do whatever it takes to beat deflation; Japan’s economy improvement is steady proceeding, seeing signs of positive cycle of output, income n spending.” Data to be released on Wednesday : Australia leading indicator, U.K. PSNCR, public sector net borrowing, CBI distribute trades, U.S. existing home sales.

EUR/JPY Outlook: August, 22 2013

EUR/JPYThe pair maintains positive near-term structure and attempts again through 131.00 barrier. Previous peak and near-term congestion top. Fresh strength broke above bear-trendline at 130.50, setting scope for clearance of 131.00, to open way for further gains towards significant barriers at 131.95, 02/08 high, and 132.20. Trendline resistance regain of which to confirm higher low at 127.96 and resume larger upleg from 124.94. Positive tone prevails on near-term studies, with daily indicators gaining traction and attempting above their midlines. Immediate supports lay at 130.27/00, while only break below 129.30 higher platform will bring bears back in play. Resistance: 131.54; 131.95; 132.47; 132.72 Support: 130.45; 130.30; 130.00; 129.80


Dollar Rebounds Broadly After Upbeat US Data

Market Review – 19/09/2013 22:15GMT The greenback pared post-FOMC losses on Thursday, and gained the most against the Japanese yen. The dollar was supported against yen in New York morning due to a slew of upbeat U.S. economic data, including jobless claims, existing home sales and Philadelphia Fed survey. Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback rebounded strongly in Asia session after Wednesday’s selloff to 97.76 on short-covering together the rally in Japan’s Nikkei index and then rallied to 99.00 in European morning on active broad-based selling of yen. Later, price rose further in New York morning on the better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims (309K versus 330K) and climbed to 99.65 after the release of the upbeat U.S. existing home sales, leading index and Philadelphia Fed survey but then retreated on profit-taking. U.S. existing home sales came in at 5.48M and 1.7% m/m, versus the forecast of 5.25M and -2.6% m/m respectively. U.S. leading indicator was 0.7%, versus the expectation of 0.6%, previous reading is revised to 0.5%. U.S. Philadelphia Fed survey (Sep) came in at 22.3, versus the forecast of 10.3. The single currency edged lower in Asia after a brief pullback from Wednesday’s top at 1.3543 to 1.3501 in Australia, and climbed to a fresh 7-month top at 1.3569 in Europe on active cross buying of euro versus sterling. The price then retreated to 1.3509 in theNew York session on renewed dollar’s broad-based rebound and profit-taking in the EUR/JPY cross. The British pound traded narrowly in Asia after Wednesday’s rally to a 8-month top at 1.6163 but fell sharply to 1.6063 in European morning after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.K. retail sales (-0.9% m/m and 2.1% y/y, versus the forecast of 0.4% m/m and 3.3% y/y), price later ratcheted lower to 1.6022 in New York session before stabilising. In other news, BoE’s Miles said that U.K. growth may be becoming self-sustaining, but recovery still embryonic. And, it is too early to judge market reaction to Fed, as the U.K. yield curve is not tied to the U.S. He also stressed that stronger growth is the main reason for his dropping call for more QE, and markets may be proved right on faster jobless fall, but perhaps underestimate productivity rebound. ECB’s Asmussen stated that the Greek programme is working, and we are seeing progress. He noted that Greek growth data released today is “positive and encouraging”.

Data to be released on Friday: U.K. PSNCR, public sector net borrowing, EU consumer confidence, Canada CPI on Friday. China will be closed due to public holiday.

Dollar Strengthens Gainst Yen As Tension On Syria Eases

Market Review – 10/09/2013 22:13GMT Dollar strengthens against yen as tension on Syria eases The U.S. dollar rallied against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as prospects of a U.S. military strike against Syria eased after Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem said that his government had agreed to a Russian proposal to place its chemical weapons under international control. Versus the yen, despite initial retreat from the Australian high of 99.76 to 99.47 in the Asian morning, the price started to rise as industrial production and retail sales from China added to signs that the world’s second largest economy is recovering from a slowdown. Later, the greenback penetrated Monday’s high of 100.11 in the European morning, and then climbed to a fresh 1-1/2 month peak at 100.47 in New York as the easing Syrian tension boosted investors’ demand for riskier assets. Data released from China on Tuesday showed that retail sales rose unexpectedly in August, while Chinese industrial production increased more than forecasted last month. The single currency retreated against the dollar after edging higher from the Asian low of 1.3250 to 1.3276 at the European open. However, failure to penetrate Monday’s New York high of 1.3281 prompted profit-taking and the pair fell to 1.3230 before staging another bounce to 1.3275 in the New York afternoon in part due to cross-buying of the euro versus The yen. The EUR/JPY rallied to a fresh 3-1/2 month peak at 133.31. Despite the Cable’s sideways trading below Monday’s high of 1.5733 in Asian trading, the British pound found support at 1.5686, and later rose above this resistance to a fresh 11-week high of 1.5745 in New York afternoon on cross-buying of sterling before easing. Data to be released on Wednesday : Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Japan Domestic CGPI, Germany CPI, HICP, U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, average earning, U.S. wholesales inventories, wholesale sales.

Dollar Ends Mixed Ahead Of Fed Meeting

Market Review – 15/09/2013 23:16GMT The greenback was mixed against other major currencies on Friday, after the release of a slew of disappointing U.S. economic reports as investors turned to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting next week. Versus the Japanese yen, despite an initial rebound to 99.98 in Asian morning, cross-buying of yen pressured price lower in European trading and the dollar later weakened further in New York morning after release of a slew of disappointing U.S. economic report. The price fell to sessions low of 99.19 in the New York afternoon. U.S. retail sales rose 0.2 percent in August, lower than street forecast for a 0.4 percent increase, after an upwardly revised 0.4 percent gain the previous month, while core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose 0.1 percent last month, also less than forecast for a 0.3 percent gain, after an upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in July. Later, the preliminary September consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan dropped to 76.8 from previous reading of 82.1 as lenders have hiked mortgage and other interest rates sharply this summer in anticipation of a pullback by the Federal Reserve of one of its major stimulus programs. The single currency went through a roller-coaster session versus U.S. dollar on Friday. Although the pair came under selling pressre at the Asian open on the Japanese business daily Nikkei report that former U.S. treasury secretary Lawrence Summers (1999-2001) would likely be named as the next Federal Reserve Chief after the FOMC’s Sept.17-18 meeting, market perceived Summers as less dovish than the other leading contender Janet Yellen. Ben Bernanke’s term as Fed chairman will end in January, 2014. Euro fell to 1.3264 ahead of European open and then rebounded to 1.3322 in New York morning after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales, however, renewed active cross-selling of euro versus yen and the pound pressured knocked price lower and the single currency briefly penetrated Thursday’s low of 1.3256 to 1.3254 but only to climb back above 1.3310 in New York afternoon session. EUR/JPY tanked from intra-day high of 132.65 and dropped marginally below Thursday’s low at 131.72 to 131.66 in New York morning, whilst the EUR/GBP tumbled to a fresh 7-month trough at 0.8357 before recovering. The British pound extended recent upmove Friday and ralled after finding renewed buying at 1.5776 ahead of European open as hopes for the Bank of England to raise interest rates sooner than expected continued to support sterling. The dollar’s broad-based weakness after the release of a slew of disappointing U.S. consumer data pushed cable above Thursday’s high of 1.5840, and the pair later climbed to a fresh 7-month peak at 1.5885 in New York afternoon. In the other news, Japan’s government upgraded economic assessment in September, said the the economy is headed toward gradual recovery due to upgrades in capital expenditure. Moreover, signs of recovery can be seen in services sector with downgrades assessment of consumer spending and exports. The government maintains the view that end of deflation is approaching. Data to be released next week : Monday: U.K. Rightmove house price, Italy trade balance, current account, EU CPI, Canada existing home sales, U.S. empire state manufacturing, industrial production, Capacity utilization. Japan financial market is closed due to public holiday. Tuesday: Australia RBA September minutes, EU current account, economic sentiment, trade balance, U.K. PPI, RPI, CPI, ONS house price, Germany economic sentiment, current condition, U.S. CPI, retail sales, Net LT TIC flows, NAHB housing market index. Wednesday: Australia leading index, U.K. BOE MPC minutes, Swiss Zew index, U.S. rate decision, housing starts, building permits Thursday: New Zealand GDP, Japan trade balance, import, export, all industry index, leading index, U.K. retail sales, CBI industrial trend, Canada wholesale sales, U.S. jobless claim, current account, Philadelphia Fed survey, existing homes sales, leading indicators. China financial market will be close due to public holiday. Friday: U.K. PSNCR, public sector net borrowing, EU consumer confidence, Canada CPI. China financial markets will be close due to public holiday.