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EUR/USD: Euros Reacted Well

Euros reacted well and we came crashing lower. Once 1.3045 broke we saw the sellers back in the market and 1.3010 was seen. Now we have corrected back to the first 23.6 Fib level, well nearly, and we are seeing that the short term indicators are slightly bullish. However we need to get above 1.3050 first and failure will see the market shake off bullish indicators and trade lower once more to 1.3010.We would cover shorts to here. Attempt small longs, keeping stops quite tight below 1.2980. If we fail to hold onto 1.2980 there will be another wave of selling pressure and we will look for 1.2920/15.Now as stated we have resistance located at 1.3050. If we can negotiate our way past this resistance we can provide buyers with the confidence to take us back to 1.3075 initially, with greater potential for 1.3140/45. Cover longs, we would only go back into longs above 1.3145.

EUR/USD” title=”EUR/USD” width=”985″ height=”617″ />

EUR/USD Slides Further On Firm U.S. Dollar

EUR/USD Open 1.2966 High 1.3051 Low 1.2934 Close 1.2985On Friday, the EUR/USD decreased with 115 pips on a firm Dollar. The European currency depreciated from 1.3051 to 1.2934 on Friday, matching the negative money flow sentiment at almost -26% and closing the week at 1.2985. The euro is trading quietly this morning, with movements at the lower end of Friday’s range for now.Quotes are slipping down of the trading range on the 1 hour char , while the downward channel has turned into wide trading scope on the 3 hour chart. A break above the nearest resistance and Friday’s top at 1.3051 may trigger further strengthening of the euro. Going below Friday’s bottom and first support at 1.2934, however, would confirm continuation of the bearish trend, towards the next objective downwards 1.2821.Today’s data focus is on Eurogroup meeting and U.S. Retail sales, Business inventories, at 12:30 and 14 GMT respectively.Quotes are moving below the 20 and 50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating bearish pressure. The value of the RSI indicator is negative and calm. the MACD is negative and declining, while the CCI has crossed down the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, giving overall short signals.Technical resistance levels: 1.3051 1.3175 1.3300Technical support levels: 1.2934 1.2821 1.2700On Friday we made +50 pips profit/loss on EUR/USD from the following sent to clients only signal:5:15 GMT+1 Sell EUR/USD at 1.3045 SL 1.3071 TP 1.2995, TP reached at 9:54 GMT+1.Total on Friday +210, as shown at our web site.

EUR/USD Chart” title=”EUR/USD Chart” />

EUR/USD- Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair has broken its support zone on a 30 minute time frame. The price is trading below the downward trend line and below the 50 day (shown in green) and 100 day (shown in yellow) moving average. There is no major or clear pattern formed on this time frame either.The volatility for the pair is high as well as the price is trading far enough from its 20 day moving average and it is also piercing the Bollinger band. However, this piercing may not have much important because the price has already broken its support zone which suggests further weakness for the pair.The RSI is trading in line with the price action which means bias could to the downside but caution should be considered as the price is trading in an oversold territory of the RSI.

EUR/USD M30″ title=”EUR/USD M30″ width=”1423″ height=”741″ />Support Zone1.2865-1.2841 Major1.2912-1.2898 Minor (NOT VALID)Resistance Zone1.3050-1.3034 Minor1.3191-1.3239 Minor1.3282-1.3328 MajorDISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER: The Above Is For Informational Purposes Only And Not To Be Construed As Specific Trading Advice. Responsibility For Trade Decisions Is Solely With The Naeem Aslam

Daily Report: EUR/USD, GBP/USD,AUD/USD And XAU/USD : May 10, 2013

The U.S. Dollar advanced against most of its trading counterparts after reports showed that Unemployment Claims declined to the lowest level in over five years, indicating that economic growth was picking up momentum. According to the Labor Department, Jobless Claims went down to 323,000 in the week which concluded on May 4 while analysts were expecting an increase of 8,000. Just a few days ago, the Federal Reserve indicated that it will forge ahead with the monthly bond purchases until the employment market shows signs of major improvement. Meanwhile, gold prices fell as releases confirmed that the number of Americans filing for Unemployment compensation dipped last week, a factor that eased pressure on the central bank to expand monetary stimulus.The Euro weakened against the U.S. Dollar as metrics revealed that Unemployment in the world’s biggest economy reached the lowest rate in more than five years. In the Euro region, economists predicted the central bank would refrain from cutting the benchmark interest rate, possibly until 2015. However, the European Central Bank’s survey showed that economists reduced the region’s Gross Domestic Product outlook and predicted a 0.4 percent contraction. Policy makers had previously indicated that the Euro-zone may face stagnation. The British Pound advanced the most in one week versus the Euro subsequent to the announcement of Industrial Production and as the Bank of England indicated it won’t expand quantitative easing. But the Sterling slipped against the greenback on better than anticipated economic Job’s reports out of the U.S. despite data which confirmed that the U.K.’s Industrial Production expanded in the month of March.The Yen traded beyond 100 per U.S. Dollar as the unprecedented measures implemented by the Bank of Japan to fight deflation have prompted the currency to weaken further. In fact, the Yen sustained the longest losing streak in close to 20 years. However, reports showed that the decline of the Yen helped many Japanese companies obtain profits. On the data front, Consumer Prices slipped 0.5 percent in March, which was the most in 24 months.Lastly in the South Pacific, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars rallied versus the majority of their peers after both nations declared that their Unemployment rate fell. The Kiwi snapped a three-day decline against the greenback after official figures denoted that the small South Pacific country added the most payrolls on record in the first three months of 2013. New Zealand’s Unemployment went from 6.9 to 6.2 percent and the number of employed inpiduals went up by 1.7 percent. The Aussie advanced versus the Yen on speculation the Reserve Bank may refrain from cutting the key cash rate.EUR/USD– U.S. Reports Dampen Euro AppealBetter than anticipated U.S. Jobless Claims reports sparked demand for the greenback prompting the shared currency to decline as market investors felt optimistic the world’s biggest economy is picking up the pace. Demand for the U.S. Dollar also increased on speculations the Federal Reserve may wind down its monetary easing program. But the Euro’s losses were limited as investors remained positive the European Central Bank may refrain from cutting the benchmark interest rates given this week’s flurry of strong economic news out of Germany.

EUR/USD” title=”EUR/USD” width=”603″ height=”381″ />GBP/USD– BOE Leaves Rates UnchangedThe British Pound fell against the greenback following the release of surprisingly positive Jobs’ reports which showed that U.S. Unemployment Claims fell by 4,000 to 323,000 last week. The Sterling weakened as the Bank of England decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at a record 0.5 percent, and left the current asset purchasing program at 375 billion Pounds. However, data showing that the U.K.’s Industrial Production expanded limited the Sterling’s decline. According to the Office for National Statistics, Industrial Production climbed 0.7 percent in March. Industrial output fell 1.4 percent YoY although the metrics posted better than forecast. The ONS also indicated that Production in the Manufacturing sector increased by 1.1 percent surpassing the predicted 0.3 percent advance.

GBP/USD” title=”GBP/USD” width=”600″ height=”379″ />AUD/USD– Unemployment DropsThe Australian Dollar strengthened versus its U.S. counterpart after reports showed that unemployment in the South Pacific nation fell. The number of employed inpiduals climbed by 50,100 last month, while economists anticipated a mere increase of 12,000. Other releases indicated that the Unemployment Rate went down from 5.6 percent in March to 5.5 in April. This prompted investors to reduce speculation on cuts to the key cash rate while analysts expect the Aussie will weaken in the months to come.

AUD/USD” title=”AUD/USD” width=”599″ height=”377″ />XAU/USD– Gold Slides On UnemploymentGold prices went down during U.S. trading after reports showed that Jobless Claims reports beat forecasts, fueling demand for the greenback by quelling concerns the recovery of the U.S. economy has slowed down. Release of the Jobless Claims data sparked speculations the Federal Reserve may put an end to stimulus at some point soon, another factor that benefitted the U.S. currency. Gold Futures for June delivery traded at $1,440.55 a troy ounce on the Comex Division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

XAU/USD” title=”XAU/USD” width=”602″ height=”377″ />Today’s OutlookToday’s economic calendar shows that the E.U. will report on German Trade Balance and Italian Industrial Production. The U.K. will release data on the Trade Balance. And in the U.S. the Federal Reserve will issue the Federal Budget Balance.

EURUSD: A Bearish Set-Up?

EUR/USD broke sharply lower last week after a break through the trend-line support connected from April lows. This break usually leads to a continuation of a larger trend which in our case is down. For now, decline from the high is still in three waves, but we will go with one-two one-two scenario because of a larger bearish view for the EUR. With that said, we are bearish now and expect 1.2935 break that will put 1.2800 level in play for this week. Resistance for current wave (ii) comes in at 1.3030 followed by 1.3070. On the other-hand, we will turn bullish only if we see an impulse back up to 1.3130 that will make wave (2) rally even more complex.

EUR/USD” title=”EURUSD” width=”606″ height=”551″ />

Eurozone Economy Recorded The Longest Ever Recession In Q12013

EUR/USD” title=”EUR/USD” width=”2306″ height=”1591″ /> For the 24 hours leading to 23:00 GMT, EUR declined 0.42 % against the USD and closed at 1.2883, after the Euro-area’s recession extended to a record sixth straight quarter in the first quarter of 2013 (Q12013). The economic data indicated that the gross domestic product in all key nations in the eurozone expect Germany contracted in 1Q 2013, raising speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) would not hesitate in announcing negative interest rates in the near future. Separately, consumer price inflation in France eased to 0.8% in (YoY) in April, following a 1.1% growth recorded in the previous month. Market had expected a rise of 0.9%. Meanwhile, data in the U.S. also recorded negative numbers after a series of encouraging data released recently. Industrial production in the nation dropped 0.5% (MoM) in April, compared to a revised 0.3% increase recorded in March. The New York State manufacturing index also slipped to a reading of -1.43 in May, from a reading of 3.05 recorded in the previous month. However, the NAHB housing market index rose to a reading of 44.0 in May, from a reading of 41.0 recorded in the prior month. In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2868, with the EUR trading 0.12% lower from yesterday’s close. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2826, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2784. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2927, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2986. With the last week’s jobless claims data showing an unexpected improvement in the labour market, it remains to be seen whether the trend has continued, given the influence of labour market data on the Fed’s monetary policy stance. Also, inflation figures from the U.S. and the Euro-zone would remain on traders checklist to gauge the near term movement in the pair.

Majors Daily Forecast May 9, 2013

EUR/USDTrading range: 1.3180 – 1.3105Trend: NeutralSell at 1.3167 SL 1.3199 TP 1.3117USD/JPYTrading range: 98.90 – 98.25Trend: NeutralSell at 98.80 SL 99.12 TP 98.35GBP/USDTrading range: 1.5560 – 1.5480Trend: NeutralSell at 1.5549 SL 1.5581 TP 1.5494USD/CHFTrading range: 0.9325 – 0.9400Trend: NeutralBuy at 0.9338 SL 0.9306 TP 0.9388The current support/resistance levels are:EUR/USD 1.3107, 1.3188, 1.3219 – 1.3107, 1.3088, 1.3057USD/JPY 98.252, 98.080, 97.802 – 98.808, 98.980, 99.258GBP/USD 1.5549, 1.5570, 1.5604 – 1.5481, 1.5460, 1.5426USD/CHF 0.9337, 0.9420, 0.9451 – 0.9339, 0.9320, 0.9289*Please note that the daily forecast is sent on time to subscribers only, who receive also updates, evening forecast, news and real time trading signals, from which we have made today so far +32, total yesterday +51 pips, as shown at our web site.

Risk FX Rebounds, Can EUR/USD Clear 1.3150?

Market Drivers for May 08, 2013

  • RBNZ Wheeler confirms intervention sending kiwi lower by 1 cent
  • CNY Trade balance beats
  • Nikkei 0.75% Europe -0.03%
  • Oil 95.75/bbl
  • Gold 1453/oz.

Europe and AsiaCNY: Trade Balance 18.2B vs 15.5B eyed CHF: CPI 0.0% EUR: German Industrial Production n/a North AmericaCAD: Housing Starts 8:15 A very quiet session in FX today with little event risk on the docket, but most high beta currencies improved as the night wore on boosted by better than expected trade data out of China as well as a small rally in equities. The EUR/USD tested yesterday’s highs in morning European trade as it rose steadily throughout the session on reported reserve persification demand from Asian central banks. The pair has been trapped in a very narrow range for the past few days as it has cycled between 1.3050 and 1.3125. As we noted earlier, it is being pulled in opposite directions, as shorts bet on the prospect of a possible negative deposit rate while longs speculate that the economic contraction in the region has reached a bottom. Yesterday’s sharp rise in German Factory orders surprised the market and provided some support to the bulls, before risk aversion flows in the North American session sent the pair lower. Today’s German Industrial Production which also beat expectations, rising 1.2% versus -0.1% expected, pushed EUR/USD to 1.3140 in mid-morning trade. Meanwhile, the only real volatility in today’s trade came out of New Zealand where the RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler confirmed that the central bank intervened in the exchange rate to “take the top off the rallies”. The kiwi tumbled more than a cent on the news, dropping to a low of .8360 before recovering back towards the 8400 level. Mr. Wheeler’s comments echo yesterday’s RBA concerns about the valuation of the Aussie and suggest that both central banks in the region will keep a close eye on exchange rates going forward. The Aussie tested the lows near the 1,0155 level once again in Asian session trade but managed to bounce after better than expected Chinese Trade data which printed at 18.2B versus 15.5B. There was however some scepticism about the numbers, as some analysts claimed that Chinese companies may have exaggerated the numbers to avoid capital controls. Lastly, USD/JPY continues to meander just underneath the 99.00 level but the failure of the pair to break through and hold 99.50 especially after strong US NFPs last week should be of concern to the bulls. US data is very sparse this week and perhaps the market will need to see further evidence of improvement before making another concerted run at the 100.00 level but for now it remains out of touch.

Majors Daily Forecast: May 8, 2013

EUR/USDTrading range: 1.3075 – 1.3145Trend: NeutralBuy at 1.3085 SL 1.3053 TP 1.3135USD/JPYTrading range: 99.20 – 98.55Trend: NeutralSell at 99.06 SL 99.38 TP 98.61GBP/USDTrading range: 1.5505 – 1.5425Trend: NeutralSell at 1.5492 SL 1.5524 TP 1.5437USD/CHFTrading range: 0.9415 – 0.9345Trend: NeutralSell at 0.9403 SL 0.9435 TP 0.9353The current support/resistance levels are:EUR/USD 1.3083, 1.3064, 1.3033 – 1.3145, 1.3164, 1.3195USD/JPY 98.512, 98.340, 98.062 – 99.068, 99.240, 99.518GBP/USD 1.5492, 1.5513, 1.5547 – 1.5424, 1.5403, 1.5369USD/CHF 0.9340, 0.9321, 0.9290 – 0.9402, 0.9421, 0.9452*Please note that the daily forecast is sent on time to subscribers only, who receive also updates, evening forecast, news and real time trading signals, from which we have made today so far +47, total yesterday +114 pips, as shown at our web site.

Major Currency Pairs: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD : May 10, 2013

EUR/USDCurrent level – 1.3028

EUR/USD” title=”EUR/USD” width=”509″ height=”348″ />The slide below 1.3070 crucial low signals a reversal at 1.3200 and the outlook is negative, for a slide through 1.2950, en route to 1.2890. Initial resistance is projected at 1.3070, followed by 1.3120.

Resistance & Support

USD/JPYCurrent level – 101.20

USD/JPY” title=”USD/JPY” width=”515″ height=”350″ />Yesterday’s break through 99.15 crucial level set an end of the corrective pattern below 99.45 and the break-out through 100.00 sentiment area sets the focus on 103.00 target projection. The bias is positive, with an initial support at 100.78, followed by 100.00 sentiment area.

Resistance & Support

GBP/USDCurrent level – 1.5432

GBP/USD” title=”GBP/USD” width=”508″ height=”351″ />Double top reversal pattern at 1.5587 signals a beginning of a downtrend towards 1.5360, en route to 1.5197. The outlook is negative with an initial resistance at 1.5440-50.

Resistance & Support