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Yen Continues To Rise In Asian Session

USD/JPY” title=”USD/JPY” width=”786″ height=”734″ />For the 24 hours leading to 23:00 GMT, the USD weakened 0.26% against the JPY, closing at 101.68.In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 101.62, with the USD trading marginally lower from yesterday’s close.In economic news, an index measuring the prices of domestic corporate goods in Japan rose 0.3% (MoM) in April, compared to a 0.1% rise recorded the previous month.The pair is expected to find support at 101.30, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 100.99. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 102.00, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 102.38.Ahead in the day, traders should keep an eye on machine tool orders and tertiary industry index data from Japan.

Yen Edges Higher After Weak US Numbers

The Japanese yen has improved slightly, as USD/JPY was trading in the low-102 range in Friday’s European session. Key US releases, notably Unemployment Claims, looked weak on Thursday. In Japan, Core Machinery Orders looked very sharp, posting its best showing since January 2012. Today’s highlight is UoM Consumer Sentiment. There are no Japanese releases on Friday. The US released a string of releases on Thursday, but for the most part, the news was not encouraging. Core CPI posted a weak gain of 0.1%, missing the forecast of a 0.2% gain. Unemployment Claims had looked impressive in recent readings, but the key indicator slumped, as new claims jumped to 360 thousand, blowing past the estimate of 332 thousand. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index dropped into negative territory, posting a reading of -5.2 points. The markets had expected a gain of 2.5 points. Housing Starts fell sharply, from 1.04 million to 0.85 million. This was well below the estimate of 0.98 million. There was some positive news, as Building Permits, which rose to 1.02 million, beating the estimate of 0.94 million. The disappointing numbers will again bring into question the health of the US economy, which has not been able to churn out continuous positive releases.In Japan, there was more good news, as Core Machinery Orders sparkled. The important manufacturing indicator jumped from 7.5% to 14.2%, blowing away the estimate of 3.1%. This release comes on the heels of a solid GDP release, which hit a four-month high as it gained 0.9%. The improvement in Japanese numbers is encouraging, and there is a growing feeling in the market that “Abeonomics” is starting to bear fruit. However, the proof in the pudding will be Japanese inflation numbers, which for the most part continue to point to deflation, the sworn enemy of the government and the Bank of Japan.The dollar has enjoyed some broad strength against the major currencies of late, in part due to speculation that the Federal Reserve might terminate its current round of quantitative easing, thanks to an improving employment picture in the US. On Thursday, John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said that the Fed could begin reducing its quantitative easing program this summer and wind up bond buying late in 2013. As QE is dollar-negative, any further statements from the Fed about QE will likely have an impact on the movement of EUR/USD.


USD/JPY May 17 at 10:35 GMTUSD/JPY 102.33 H: 102.63 L: 102.11

USD/JPY Technical” title=”USD/JPY Technical” width=”400″ height=”104″ />USD/JPY has edged lower in Friday trading. The pair is facing resistance at 102.57. This is a weak line, and could break if the dollar rebounds. This is followed by a strong line of resistance at 103.75. On the downside, the pair is receiving support at 101.81. This is followed by a support level at 100.54, which is protecting the 100 level.

  • Current range: 101.81 to 102.57

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 101.81, 100.54, 100 and 99.57
  • Above: 102.57, 103.75, 104.94, 105.87 and 106.55

OANDA’s Open Positions RatioUSD/JPY is showing activity after a lull on Thursday. Currently, there is movement towards short positions. This is consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, as the yen has posted some modest gains against the dollar. The ratio is slowing a slight majority of open positions in favor of short positions, indicating that trader sentiment is biased towards the yen recovering after the recent strong rally by the dollar.USD/JPY continues to trade at multi-year highs, as it trades in the low-102 range. The pair did not show much reaction to weak US releases on Thursday. The US will release key consumer confidence data later today, and this market-mover could affect the pair if the reading is not in line with market expectations.USD/JPY Fundamentals

  • 13:55 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 77.9 points.
  • 13:55 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations.
  • 14:00 US CB Leading Index. Estimate 0.3%.

Yen Fell To A Record Low

USD/JPY” title=”USD/JPY” width=”520″ height=”474″ />For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD strengthened 0.50% against the JPY and closed at 102.19.In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 102.19, with the USD trading flat from yesterday’s close.The tertiary industry index in Japan dropped 1.3% (MoM) in March, compared to a revised 1.2% rise recorded in the previous month. Market had expected a drop of 0.6%.The pair is expected to find support at 101.48, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 100.77. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 102.68, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 103.16.The Japanese GDP data slated for release late today is expected to grab market attention as the growth in the economy is expected to accelerate in first quarter of 2013.

EUR/JPY: Showing Strength

Yesterday our cross traded lower and then bounced off of the 129.00 level, a middle point between the 38.2% and 50% of the last wave up, showing strength. The majors that drive the cross are pointing up. The Euro has developed the third inside day as expected and this means that we are going to see a big movement, and because it has had several attempts at developing a H-S to fall, I see strength in the pair. The USD/JPY is forming a inverted H-S and the right shoulder has bounced close to 38.2% Fib level, showing strength.To the upside we have to trade above the trend line drawn. Attempt longs on a clear break, with the stop around 129.45.Above we have the first resistance at 129.66 and the second one is far 130.41, so we have meat in the trade. Below the first support is 129.23 and the second one 128.92.

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USD/JPY: Pennant Pattern Consolidation In Strong Uptrend

USD/JPY (daily chart) has consolidated within a pennant pattern just under the 100.00-area highs. This pattern generally has a bullish breakout bias, especially as it occurs during the course of a strong and steep uptrend that has been in place for the past seven months. The pennant represents a correction and consolidation after the long-term high just shy of the 100.00 target was established about a month ago and then re-tested just about a week after that. A breakout above the pennant would place price very close to those highs once again for yet another attempt at rising above 100.00. A breakout above 100.00 would confirm a bullish trend continuation with a further upside objective around the 103.00 resistance area.

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USD/JPY Recovers Further To Almost 99.5

USD/JPY Open 99.14 High 99.46 Low 97.90 Close 98.95On Friday, the USD/JPY increased with 135 pips on U.S. NFP. The currency couple appreciated from 97.90 to 99.27 on Friday, matching the positive money flow sentiment at over +19%, closing the week at 98.95. This morning the Dollar lifted further against the Yen, reaching 99.46.Range trading has formed on the 1 hour chart, while the upward channel is on hold on the 3 hour chart. Breaking above today’s top and nearest resistance 99.46 would encourage further recovery of the Dollar. Immediate support is Friday’s bottom at 97.90, and a consistent break below it could strengthen the Yen further down towards the next target of 97.00.Today is Children’s Day in Japan.Quotes are moving above the 20 and 50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating bullish pressure. The value of the RSI indicator is positive and hesitant. The MACD is positive and inclining upwards, while CCI has crossed up the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, giving overall light long signals.Technical resistance levels: 99.46 100.35 101.16Technical support levels: 97.90 97.00 96.17Today so far +25 pips profit/loss on USD/JPY today from the following sent to clients only signal:5:15 GMT+1 Buy USD/JPY at 99.07 SL 98.81 TP 99.57, exit sent at 7:44 GMT+1.Today so far +58, on Friday +149, as shown at our web site. Have a great day!

USD/JPY Chart” title=”USD/JPY Chart” />

Week In FX Europe: A Weaker EUR And Yen Conspires To Kill US Exports

With this strong move higher of the dollar across the board, further pressure on the EUR is certainly logical, but how much more? Thus far, the dollar has retained its strong bid tone that has been fueled by USD/JPY’s rise above firstly ¥100, then ¥101 and now threatening ¥102 in the past 24-hours. Indeed it was also heavy macro fund buying of USD/CHF that has been a factor for the EUR to handily slip below 1.3000 late this week. Thrown in some Euro official account selling and hiking of corporate bids near the single currency’s stellar support levels (1.2970-80) has allowed the EUR to consider spiraling through its 200-DMA (1.2950). A close well below this level will only add to the further bearish pressure of 17-member currency.The ECB cutting rates last week and even hinting at more easing, coupled with Euro-policy makers remarks suggesting that that they are prepared to even go down the negative rate route if its required to get the Euro-zone economy back on a strengthening path, may be enough ‘juice’ to take on this longer term support. By day’s end, the EUR and Yen conspire to kill US exports – a viscous circle we are creating!

4 Charts

USD/JPY Hits 100 – Just As Abe Ordered

A number of readers had negative reactions to the recent post on USD/JPY heading for 100. But when a nation’s government and the central bank are both trying to weaken the currency, such outcome is only a matter of time.

USD/JPY” title=”USD/JPY” width=”589″ height=”548″ />Japan’s Upper House elections are coming up in July. Abe clearly wants to see the yen weaker by then, ideally with dollar-yen firmly above the psychological level of 100. Some (like the ISI Group) are now calling for 110 as the next stop – though given the slow growth in the US, it may take a while.

Japanese Yen Trading Higher In The Asian Session

USD/JPY” title=”USD/JPY” width=”601″ height=”348″ />For the 24 hours leading to 23:00 GMT, the USD strengthened 0.54% against the JPY and closed at 100.27.In the Asian session at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 100.01, with the USD trading 0.26% lower from yesterday’s close.The pair is expected to find support at 99.53, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 99.04. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 100.50, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 100.98.In the absence of any key economic release in Japan today, investors shall keep a tab on the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, factory orders and the ADP employment change data for trading cues.

Correction Movement On USD/JPY

The USD/JPY continues the correction movement that started on May 22. The first troubles started on the May 29, when sellers managed to break the long-term uptrend line supporting the recent upswing. The second bad sign occured on the June 3, when the price managed to break below the psychologically important level at 100 and a very important support at 99.90 (red area). Buyers managed to come back above this level, but it was not for long, as the price fell back again. This can be viewed as a strong sell signal.

USD/JPY” title=”USD/JPY” width=”622″ height=”266″ />On the other hand, the price is still locked in a flag (green lines). A flag is a typical trend continuation pattern, so traders can be still slightly optimistic and use the lower levels for considering long positions. The upper line of the flag will currently be the closest resistance. Despite the breaking of two important supports, the long-term scenario still stays positive.