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A Cautious Start To The Week: Big Gap Lower In EUR/USD

A Cautious Start To The Week: Big Gap Lower In EUR/USD

On Monday mornings I tend to prefer waiting for the market to begin to generate some meaningful development. Today there has been meaningless movement. Clearly the German election results have produced a surprise, a big gap lower in EUR/USD, but the market doesn’t appear to know what to do. Of course, I have my outlook but there are some initial teething problems that need to be resolved.

Indeed, we have seen a recovery in USD/JPY and a drop in EUR/USD, a diffident USD/CHF and a recovery in GBP/USD. Talk about a mixed bag.

My analysis is for a bearish EUR/USD, bearish USD/CHF, bearish USD/JPY and a deeper recovery in GBP/USD that really doesn’t appear to make sense, unless it is forming a triangle. It’s hardly an advert for perfect correlation.

Needless to say, there’s a need for caution. Therefore, take note of the extremes that I shall attempt to identify in order that you can get a better grip on the next moves. I suspect, by the European session we could see a stronger grip on where this is going with my preference for a firmer dollar but I’m wary of significant moves with the exception of EUR/USD.

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