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AUD/USD: Long For 0.7650

AUD/USD: Long For 0.7650

GBP/USD Is Testing Key Resistance Area

  • Two opinion polls on Monday suggested that the “Remain” camp had recovered some ground in Britain’s European Union referendum debate following the murder of a pro-EU lawmaker, but a third poll found those wanting to leave were ahead by a whisker.
  • An ORB poll for The Daily Telegraph newspaper found support for Remain at 53%, up 5 percentage points on the previous one, with support for Leave on 46%, down three points. Respected social research body NatCen found Remain on 53% and Leave on 47% in a separate survey. However, an online poll by YouGov for The Times showed Leave ahead on 44% with Remain on 42%.
  • The implied probability of a “Remain” vote in Thursday’s referendum rose to around 78% after falling as low as 60% last Thursday, according to odds from gaming website Betfair.
  • On Monday, sterling climbed 2.1% against the dollar, its biggest one-day gain since late 2008. This is the third time the GBP/USD has tested the 1.47-48 band since May and a clear break of those levels could spark a wave of short-covering in the pound. But we will probably have to wait until the markets see the results of Thursday’s referendum.
  • The market is reacting to every twist in opinion polls and we avoid taking positions on GBP pairs ahead of the referendum.

AUD/USD: RBA Gave No Hint That It Would Ease Again

  • The AUD/USD is flirting with a two-week high near 0.7500 today, after the Reserve Bank of Australia gave no clear hint that it would ease policy again.
  • Minutes of the RBA June 7 meeting showed the central bank considered the current policy setting as appropriate for promoting sustainable economic growth and returning inflation to target over time.
  • The minutes said that members began their discussion of the Australian economy by noting that growth in real GDP in the March quarter was stronger than anticipated. The central bank said: “More timely labour market data indicated that the unemployment rate had remained around 5.75%, but that employment growth appeared to have lost some momentum following very strong growth in late 2015, which was largely as expected.” The RBA also noted that tighter supervision by regulators on the banks had resulted in stronger lending standards.
  • The minutes showed that the strength in the economic data is clearly providing some offset to the RBA concerns about very low inflation. We do not expect further RBA rate cuts.
  • We keep our bullish AUD/USD view unchanged. The target of our AUD/USD long in the short-term part of the portfolio is 0.7650.


Daily Forex Trading Strategies – Major Pairs


Daily Forex Trading Strategies – Major Crosses

It is usually reasonable to pide your portfolio into two parts: the core investment part and the satellite speculative part. The core part is the one you would want to make profit with in the long term thanks to the long-term trend in price changes. Such an approach is a clear investment as you are bound to keep your position opened for a considerable amount of time in order to realize the profit. The speculative part is quite the contrary. You would open a speculative position with short-term gains in your mind and with the awareness that even though potentially more profitable than investments, speculation is also way more risky. In typical circumstances investments should account for 60-90% of your portfolio, the rest being speculative positions. This way, you may enjoy a possibly higher rate of return than in the case of putting all of your money into investment positions and at the same time you may not have to be afraid of severe losses in the short-term.How to read these tables?1. Support/Resistance – three closest important support/resistance levels 2. Position/Trading Idea:BUY/SELL – It means we are looking to open LONG/SHORT position at the Entry Price. If the order is filled we will set the suggested Target and Stop-loss level.LONG/SHORT – It means we have already taken this position at the Entry Price and expect the rate to go up/down to the Target level.3. Stop-Loss/Profit Locked In – Sometimes we move the stop-loss level above (in case of LONG) or below (in case of SHORT) the Entry price. This means that we have locked in profit on this position.4. Risk Factor – green “*” means high level of confidence (low level of uncertainty), grey “**” means medium level of confidence, red “***” means low level of confidence (high level of uncertainty)5. Position Size (forex)- position size suggested for a USD 10,000 trading account in mini lots. You can calculate your position size as follows: (your account size in USD / USD 10,000) * (our position size). You should always round the result down. For example, if the result was 2.671, your position size should be 2 mini lots. This would be a great tool for your risk management!Position size (precious metals) – position size suggested for a USD 10,000 trading account in units. You can calculate your position size as follows: (your account size in USD / USD 10,000) * (our position size).6. Profit/Loss on recently closed position (forex) – is the amount of pips we have earned/lost on recently closed position. The amount in USD is calculated on the assumption of suggested position size for USD 10,000 trading account.Profit/Loss on recently closed position (precious metals) – is profit/loss we have earned/lost per unit on recently closed position. The amount in USD is calculated on the assumption of suggested position size for USD 10,000 trading account.

Source: Growth Aces – Forex And Precious Metals Trading Signals

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