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Beware Of Downside If Yen Breaks 105.40

Beware Of Downside If Yen Breaks 105.40


USD/JPY 60-Min Chart

BIAS: We remain in an uncertain outlook and may imply a sideways consolidation.

Resistance: 106.40-50 106.75-85 107.25 107.49Support: 105.77 105.40 105.26 105.90-95

MAIN ANALYSIS: We have a range – from the 107.49 high to 105.40 low. The weekly Price Equilibrium Cloud is capping price while the daily cloud is supporting. With the 3-wave decline there is a reasonable argument to suggest a complex correction – a flat or expanded flat (a triangle is eliminated as this is a Wave [ii]). An expanded flat would have an upper barrier at 108.19-29 while the recycling could reach back to between 104.62 – 105.40.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Thus, I doubt we’ll see direct follow-through higher – above 108.30 – and only a direct break below 105.40 would suggest the potential for a second or even third ABC pattern lower. Therefore, be aware of the downside if 105.40 breaks directly. Until then, it’s probably best to remain neutral to allow any complex correction to develop.

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