Daily Currency Outlook: AUD/USD And USD/JPY : August 17,2018
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7228; (P) 0.7258; (R1) 0.7291;
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7201 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7346 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7201 will extend the larger decline from 0.8135, to 100% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7309 from 0.7452 at 0.7085.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there should now have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.54; (P) 110.82; (R1) 111.19;
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. The corrective decline from 113.17 might extend lower. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.42 will target 112.14 minor resistance first. Break will argue that larger rally is possibly resuming for above 113.17.
USD/JPY 4 Hour Chart
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.
USD/JPY Daily Chart