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Daily Currency Outlook: EUR/AUD And EUR/GBP : May 02,2018

Daily Currency Outlook: EUR/AUD And EUR/GBP : May 02,2018

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6003; (P) 1.6030; (R1) 1.6067;

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6139 is extending after brief consolidation. Intraday bias stays on the downside. Such decline is viewed as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.6189. Further fall should be seen to 1.5773 support, or below. But downside should be contained above 1.5621 to bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.6055 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.6189 high again.

EUR/AUD 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, while there is bearish pergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. EUR/AUD also drew strong support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Current rally from 1.3624 could still extend to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nonetheless, we’d expect further loss of upside momentum, and strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, sustained break of 1.5621 support should confirm reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.5153 support and below.

EUR/AUD Daily Chart

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8771; (P) 0.8796; (R1) 0.8834;

EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8830 today but quickly retreated. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, above 0.8830 will resume the rebound from 0.8620 and target 0.8967 cluster resistance next (50% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.8963). Firm break there will confirm neat term reversal. On the downside, below 0.8760 minor support will turn focus back to 0.8679 support. Break there will suggests that larger decline from 0.9305 is resuming.

In the bigger picture, for now, the decline from 0.9305 is seen as a leg inside the long term consolidation pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). Such consolidation pattern could extend further. Hence, in case of strong rally, we’d be cautious on strong resistance by 0.9304/5 to limit upside. Meanwhile, in another decline attempt, we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

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