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Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY : August 12, 2015

Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY : August 12, 2015

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 194.20; (P) 194.59; (R1) 195.21;

No change in GBP/JPY’s outlook. Further rise cannot be ruled out. But at this point, we’re holding on to the view that consolidation pattern from 195.86 isn’t completed yet. Thus, we’d expect strong resistance from 195.86 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, break of 190.99 will start the third leg of the consolidation and will target 184.95 support.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 116.83 is still in progress and would target 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to 200 psychological level. Medium term momentum is not too convincing with bearish pergence condition in weekly MACD. We’d be cautious on medium term topping around 200 and bring a deep correction. Meanwhile, break of 174.86 will suggest that the trend has reversed earlier than we expect.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.17; (P) 137.77; (R1) 138.75;

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for the moment and the rise from 133.29 is extending to 141.04 resistance. With 133.09 support intact, the rebound from 126.09 is still mildly in favor to extend. Break of 141.01 will confirm this bullish case. On the downside, below 136.78 minor support will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 149.76 medium term top is viewed as corrective in nature. Strong rebound after failing to sustain below 38.2% retracement of 94.11 to 149.76 at 128.50 argues that it’s developing into a sideway pattern. We’d expect more range trading between 126.09 and 149.76 in medium term. And that should then be followed by an upside breakout at a later stage. Nonetheless, decisive break of 126.09 would extend the correction towards 61.8% retracement at 115.36.

EUR/JPY 4 Hours Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

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