Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY : August 24, 2015
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.62; (P) 192.19; (R1) 193.05;
GBP/JPY’s fall extends to as low as 188.42 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Fall from 195.26 is viewed as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 195.86. Such decline would target 184.95 support and below. We’ll look for strong support around 61.8% retracement of 174.86 to 195.86 at 182.88 to contain downside and bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 116.83 is still in progress and would target 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to 200 psychological level. Medium term momentum is not too convincing with bearish pergence condition in weekly MACD. We’d be cautious on medium term topping around 200 and bring a deep correction. Meanwhile, break of 174.86 will suggest that the trend has reversed earlier than we expect.
GBP/JPY H4 Chart
GBP/JPY Daily Chart
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.42; (P) 138.71; (R1) 139.26;
No change in EUR/JPY’s outlook. Further rise is expected as long as 136.88 support holds, towards 141.04 resistance. However, the structure of such rebound is having a corrective look and could be the second leg of a consolidation pattern from 141.04. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 141.04 to limit upside and bring another fall as the third leg. Break of 136.88 will turn bias back to the downside for 134.99 support and below.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 149.76 medium term top is viewed as corrective in nature. Strong rebound after failing to sustain below 38.2% retracement of 94.11 to 149.76 at 128.50 argues that it’s developing into a sideway pattern. We’d expect more range trading between 126.09 and 149.76 in medium term. And that should then be followed by an upside breakout at a later stage. Nonetheless, decisive break of 126.09 would extend the correction towards 61.8% retracement at 115.36.
EUR/JPY H4 Chart
EUR/JPY Daily Chart