Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY : December 14, 2015
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.37; (P) 184.21; (R1) 184.86;
Fall from 188.79 is expected to extend lower with 186.33 resistance intact. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 180.36 has completed at 188.79 and deeper decline should be seen back to 180.36/64 support zone. Nonetheless, break of 186.33 minor resistance would now dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 188.79 instead.
In the bigger picture, the breach of the medium term trend line support is taken as a sign of trend reversal. This is supported by bearish pergence condition in weekly MACD. Also, GBP/JPY was close to key cluster resistance of 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to 200 psychological level. Break of 174.86 will confirm trend reversal and bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 199.80/200.00 to bring reversal finally.
GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart
GBP/JPY Daily Chart
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.40; (P) 133.09; (R1) 133.56;
With 132.33 minor support intact, rebound from 129.66 short term bottom is expected to extend higher for upper channel line (now at 136.02). Nonetheless, the fall from 141.04 is still in favor to extend lower as long as EUR/JPY stays inside this falling channel. Below 132.22 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 129.66 support. However, sustained trading above the channel resistance will likely extend the rebound from 126.09 through 141.04.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 149.76 medium term top is viewed as corrective in nature. Strong rebound after failing to sustain below 38.2% retracement of 94.11 to 149.76 at 128.50 argues that it’s developing into a sideway pattern. We’d expect more range trading between 126.09 and 149.76 in medium term. And that should then be followed by an upside breakout at a later stage. Nonetheless, decisive break of 126.09 would extend the correction towards 61.8% retracement at 115.36.
EUR/JPY 4 Hours Chart
EUR/JPY Daily Chart