Daily Currency Outlook: USD/JPY And USD/CHF : July 02,2018
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.39; (P) 110.67; (R1) 110.96
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside as rebound from 108.10 is extending. Further rise would be seen for 111.39 high. Break there will also resume the rise from 104.62 and target 114.73 key resistance. However, below 110.05 will turn bias to the downside for 109.36 to extend the corrective pattern from 111.39.
USD/JPY H4 Chart
In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.
USD/JPY Daily Chart
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9869; (P) 0.9928; (R1) 0.9963
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. The corrective structure of price actions from 0.9787 suggests that fall from 1.0056 is not completed yet. . On the downside, break of 0.9855 will turn bias to the downside for 0.9787 and below. Nonetheless, we’d expect strong support from 0.9722/4 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724, 100% projection of 1.0056 to 0.9787 from 0.9991 at 0.9722) to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 0.9991 will target a test on 1.0056 high.
USD/CHF H4 Chart
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 is seen as a leg inside the long term range pattern. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. Above 1.0056 will target 1.0342 (2016 high). In that case, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.
USD/CHF Daily Chart