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EUR/JPY Intraday Commentary: October, 2 2013

EUR/JPY Intraday Commentary: October, 2 2013

EUR/JPYThe dollar was little changed against most of the G10 currencies during the European morning as investors waited for the results of the ECB monetary policy meeting and any political developments out of Italy. For the ECB, the focus will be as usual on the press conference held by ECB President Mario Draghi after the meeting and whether he repeats his previous statement that interest rates would remain, “at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.” The market is particularly eager to hear whether the words “or lower” are still included. JPY was the biggest winner among the G10 currencies during the European morning, with CHF also appreciating on what look to be safe haven flows as most European stock markets declined and US stock futures traded down 0.7%. Gold and silver also rebounded somewhat from yesterday’s sharp falls. In the EM currencies the picture was mixed, with the South African rand being the main winner and the Russian ruble recording the biggest loses against the dollar.Sky News reported that former PM Berlusconi’s PDL would vote unanimously against the Letta government in the confidence motion, but this could not be immediately confirmed. That would be a serious blow to the government.The EUR/JPY fell sharply during the European morning, but after hitting the 131.48 (S2) floor rebounded and broke above the 131.85 (S1) barrier. The pair managed to violate the 4-hour chart’s blue uptrend line, providing sufficient indications that the rate might continue its path through the shorter-term downward sloping channel (1-hour chart). If the selling pressure drives the price below the 131.48 (S2) level, I believe that we should also concern for a reversal of the 4-hour trend. The aforementioned scenario is also supported by the MACD’s negative value. The RSI oscillator escaped from its oversold territory, confirming the last hour’s pullback.Support levels are identified at 131.85 (S1); followed by 131.48 (S2); and 130.95 (S3). The latter one is found from the 4-hour chart.Resistance is at 132.31 (R1); followed by 132.80 (R2); and 133.46 (R3).

EUR/JPY Hourly Chart ” title=”EUR/JPY Hourly Chart ” src=”” height=”812″ width=”1730″ />

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