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FX Scorecard: What To Buy And Sell

FX Scorecard: What To Buy And Sell

This week the scorecard recommends buying NOK, AUD and JPY while selling NZD, EUR and GBP (see suggested weights in portfolio in table below).

All input factors currently suggest selling NZD while the short EUR recommendation derives from last week’s performance which according to the scorecard seems overdone. This week’s long NOK signal stems from small positive scores for all input factors except the interest rate input factor which is marginally negative. Last week’s sell-off in AUD is overdone according to the model. The Scorecard recommends buying AUD this week despite relatively strong negative scores on the input factors for risk premium and the option market’s positioning.

Last week’s signals resulted in a 0.2% loss. The short EUR and NZD positions were particularly expensive, while the long SEK position performed well.

The next scorecard signals will be sent out on 20 July.

G10 FX Scorecard

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