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Soft NFP Dampens U.S. Rate Hike Hopes

Soft NFP Dampens U.S. Rate Hike Hopes

Dollar bulls were subdued during trading on Friday following August’s soft NFP headline figure of 151k which quelled expectations over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates this year. Average earnings declined to 0.1% while the unemployment rate rose to 4.9% simply questioning if the US labour force could maintain its resilience in a period of global uncertainty. Although data from the states has followed a positive path this month, today’s disappointing labour report has failed to fulfil one of the prerequisites needed for the Fed to pull the trigger in the short term. Talks about September being a “live” meeting to raise US rates may be discounted after today while December could hang on a thin line. While the overall outlook for the US economy still looks somewhat encouraging, more positive data may be needed in Q4 to renew hopes of the Fed breaking the trend of central bank inaction in December.

The dollar index was vulnerable to loses with price trading towards 95.70 following the soft NFP figure which dimmed hopes of the Fed taking action this year. The Index may turn technical bearish if prices go below the daily 20 SMA. A breakdown below 95.50 could signal further weakness with bears dragging prices lower towards 95.00.

Gold received a welcome boost with prices trading towards $1330 following the disappointing NFP which cooled the heated hopes of the Fed stepping forward. With a weak dollar potentially becoming a dominant theme following today’s disappointment, gold could be open to further gains in the future. Concerns remain elevated over the global economy which could propel the precious metal higher as investors flock to safe-haven assets. If US data continues to follow this negative trend in September, gold could find itself back above $1350.

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