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That was much a do about nothing. I normally don’t make mention of fundamental information but had thought that Yellen’s cosy fireside chat may well produce a reaction. It seems as if the fire was flickering hot and made everyone sleepy. I have no idea (or interest) in the words she uttered but in the end, I got the reaction I had hoped for in EUR/USD – and EUR/JPY – but across the other pairs I found some annoyances and unexpected moves. In the bigger picture I don’t think it makes too much of a difference but I’d like to see the next reaction just to check my outlook remains intact.

For now, the gains in the dollar look positive but it’s not quite the right time to suggest strong follow-through. I still have some reservations about USD/CHF that seems to be having a tough time working out what it wants to do. Looking at the EUR-CHF balance I can still see dollar downside risk over the course of the day but may not begin until the second half. I also note the potential for GBP/USD to see some rather volatile trading – breaks on either side – and reversals.

Even AUD/USD managed to claw its way higher – against my expectations – but appears more to be a recycling rather than any stronger intent to rally back higher.

As for USD/JPY, it had a potentially constructive day. At least it has formed the basis for one but now needs to confirm the solidity of that base. Even with the gains it managed, the downside in EUR/USD was strong enough to allow EUR/JPY to extend losses. As positive as I find this, the fact that the general balance across the currency pairs tends to suggest that the cross will not make huge downside headway today and succumb to the erratic nature of development I have suggested above…

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