Summer Has Come Early
August has traditionally been the month where the market seems to die a death with traders mumbling about the Summer Doldrums. It almost seems as if the market has been that way for 3 months already… and it seems like the market has succumbed to seeing this extend even further. Personally I don’t think it’s going to be the same this year, but right now there’s a good chance that we could still remain in that range for now.
That said the current losses in the dollar were basically expected although I haven’t caught the levels too well. There is still more to go and I suspect from the balance of required developments across all currency pairs that we’ve still got a way to go to complete this segment of the larger structure. There does seem to be a modestly clear picture within both EUR/USD and USD/CHF of continued swings over the coming days.
GBP/USD has been complicated and defeated me over the past week or so – but I think I’ve resolved this. It needs confirmation and with the market we are seeing, it may take a day or two more but should resolve the current consolidation. On the other side of the world, AUD/USD has made its break and this should continue overall but only in steps rather than the leaps that it took over the past year. Today is likely to be a slow day I think.
Over in the humid and sweaty JPY lands, USD/JPY seems a bit reluctant to extend losses. It’s a little touch and go, but I feel it could move sideways today. This is down to EUR/JPY that appears to want to make further gains but probably more driven by EUR/USD and therefore the suggestion is for further consolidation in USD/JPY – best watch the range carefully and adjust if there is any sign of a break of range…