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Thursday’s FX Analysis And Trading Idea: EUR/USD

Thursday’s FX Analysis And Trading Idea: EUR/USD

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Weekly Trend: Oversold 1st Resistance: 1.1054 2nd Resistance: 1.1115 3rd Resistance: 1.1171 1st Support: 1.0995 2nd Support: 1.0950

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) Better than expected. Setting a new high from May 2014.

28th of July, German Unemployment Change Better than expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe) Higher than expected. Setting a new high since last February.

18th of August, European CPI confirmed at 0.2% as expected and as per previous month.

23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August.

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe) Slightly lower than expected.

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Slightly worse than expected.

8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged.

23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI German Manufacturing PMI better than expected, German Services PMI worse than expected (new historical low from July 2013).

29th of September, German Unemployment Worse than expected.

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts) Significantly better than expected (59.5).

USD

Recent Facts:

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales Both better than expected.

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected.

6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI Worse than expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years.

15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Retail Sales worse than expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing better than expected.

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Higher than expected.

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further.

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Better than expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007).

28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches Durable Goods Orders better than expected. Fed’s Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income.

29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales GDP better than expected, Pending Home Sales worse than expected.

5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ADP Nonfarm Employment worse than expected (new low since March 2014).ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI better than expected (new high since December 2015).

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Nonfarm Payrolls worse than expected, Unemployment Rate slightly worse than expected.

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes Fed says several FOMC members see rate rise ‘relatively soon’.

TRADING IDEA

EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Weekly Trend: Oversold 1st Resistance: 1.2320 2nd Resistance: 1.2430 1st Support: 1.2169 2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, UK Services PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector) Worse than expected. Setting a new historical low, the lowest value of the last 7 years.

27th of July 2016, Gross Domestic Product (preliminary) Better than expected.

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut) Bank of England lowers interest rates as expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program.

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers) Slightly worse than expected.

9th of August, Trade Balance Worse than expected. Setting a new historical low.

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation) Higher than expected. Setting a new high since January 2015.

18th of August, UK Retail Sales Better than expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015.

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector) Better than expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015.

5th of September, UK Services PMI Better than expected.

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product Pared the expectations.

4th of October, Construction PMI Better than expected.

5th of October, Services PMI + BoE Speech Services PMI slightly better than expected, rate expectations linked to long-term post-brexit uncertainty.

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Weekly Trend: Neutral 1st Resistance: 0.7660 2nd Resistance: 0.7735 3rd Resistance: 0.7828 1st Support: 0.7525 2nd Support: 0.7420

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote.

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared.

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as expected.

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun) Worse than expected.

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement Interest rates cut (to 2%) as expected.

18th of August, Employment Change Better than expected. Highest since the beginning of this year.

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects) Worse than expected.

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure Worse than expected.

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product As expected.

15th of September, Employment Change Worse than expected.

20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Neutral stance.

30th of September, New Home Sales + Private Sector Credit New Home Sales better than previous, Private Sector Credit slightly worse than expected.

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement Central Bank keeps interest rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend.

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

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