Yen’s Bull Phase Rapidly Aging
Does shorting the yen at the end of October a the USD shifts its seasonal tendencies look like the next best investment?
The yen’s flow of leverage, while bullish since 2013, is aging rapidly. Last week’s bearish setup, a sign of extreme distribution (by the invisible hand), defines an aging bull phase similar to September 2011 when DI fell to -90%. The yen finally weakened when DI2 fell into the lower quartile (Q4 or darker red box) in December 2011 (chart). A small minority, possibly already nibbling lightly on the short side at -90%, will get more aggressive once DI2 nears or falls into the lower quartile. This flow, a cycle that repeats, should be sending a clear message to the bears (bulls and pigs) by either the end of the year or 2016.
The real question is, will anyone be listening?
Conspiracy theories sell. Quartiles don’t.
Yen-U.S. Dollar Diffusion Indices